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A team of researchers at the Poverty Lab and the Rustandy Center for Social Sector Innovation at the University of Chicago in partnership with NORC at the University of Chicago, an independent, non-partisan research institution, have been administering a longitudinal survey on a representative sample of the U.S. population since April 2020. Currently in its […] 

 

This week's European Economic Experts Panel statement:

The practical application of auction theory to the licensing of rights to use public assets like radiospectrum and other natural resources has generated substantially higher government revenues and better allocative efficiency worldwide than would have happened under previous arrangements. 

This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Restoring the top individual federal income tax rate to 39.6% for incomes over $400,000 (from the current 37%) and taxing the capital gains and dividends of taxpayers with income over $1 million at that top rate (instead of the current preferential rate of 20%), with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be unlikely to hurt economic growth noticeably.

B) Restoring the top tax rate, removing the preferential rate on capital gains and dividends, and raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be likely to lead to a meaningful sustained reduction in fiscal deficits. 

This week's European Economic Experts Panel statement:

Strong competition from foreign producers is likely to encourage greater private sector expenditure on research and development in the home market. 

This is Round 10 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. This survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright. The list of experts answering the questions is identified in the post along with the responses. Individual responses are anonymous. A simple summary of responses of Round 10 appears here on the […] 

This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The US economy would be substantially stronger today if the state and local ‘stay-at-home’ orders had been more uniform and lasted longer in the first half of the year.

B) The economy will receive a substantial boost as soon as K-12 schools can be safely opened in person nationwide. 

This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) The ECB should aim to achieve an inflation rate that averages 2% over time.

B) The ECB should take account of the environmental implications of its policy decisions.

C) The objectives set for the ECB by Treaty should make maximum sustainable employment of equal importance as price stability. 

This is Round 09 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. This survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright. The list of experts answering the questions is identified in the post along with the responses. Individual responses are anonymous. A simple summary of responses of Round 09 appears here on the […]