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US

U.S. State Budgets (revisited)

Question A:

By discounting pension liabilities at high interest rates under government accounting standards, many U.S. state and local governments understate their pension liabilities and the costs of providing pensions to public-sector workers. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

During the next two decades some U.S. states, unless they substantially increase taxes, cut spending, and/or change public-sector pensions, will require a combination of severe austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and/or default. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
US

Fracking (revisited)

New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
US

Economic Stimulus (revisited)

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A: Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on February 15, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)

B: Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs. 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
US

Congress and Monetary Policy

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Legislation introduced in Congress would require the Federal Reserve to "submit to the appropriate congressional committees…a Directive Policy Rule", which shall "describe the strategy or rule of the Federal Open Market Committee for the systematic quantitative adjustment of the Policy Instrument Target to respond to a change in the Intermediate Policy Inputs." Should the Fed deviate from the rule, the Fed Chair would have to "testify before the appropriate congressional committees as to why the [rule]…is not in compliance." Enacting this provision would improve monetary policy outcomes in the U.S. 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
US

Patents

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A: All else equal, Patent Assertion Entities — which specialize in acquiring and asserting patents and are popularly known as “patent trolls" — promote innovation in the U.S.

B: Within the software industry, the US patent system makes consumers better off than they would be in the absence of patents. 
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Business, Management, & Corporate Performance
US

Gary Becker

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A: Employers that discriminate in hiring will be at a competitive disadvantage, if their customers do not care about their mix of employees, compared with firms that do not discriminate.

B: Rising market wages are an important reason — over and above any changes in medical technology, social norms or preferences — why family sizes have fallen over the past century in rich countries. 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel