European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
Europe

The US Minimum Wage

Question A:

The current US federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour. States can choose whether to have a higher minimum - and many do.


A federal minimum wage of $15 per hour would lower employment for low-wage workers in many states.

Question B:

A federal minimum wage that is pegged to state and/or local conditions such as the cost of living would be preferable to the current arrangements that give states a role in setting the policy.

 
Europe

After Brexit

Question A:

The UK economy is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it would have been if the country had remained in the European Union.

Question B:

The aggregate economy of the 27 countries still in the EU is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than if the UK had not left.

 
Europe

Antitrust Action

The US Federal Trade Commission and 46 states have brought antitrust cases against Facebook, which could potentially require the company to unwind its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp. We invited both our US and European panels to express their views on this issue by asking the experts whether they agree or disagree with the following statement, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

 
Europe

Personnel Economics

Edward Lazear passed away in November 2020 at the age of 72, mourned by many in the worlds of economic research and policy-making. Described by two close colleagues and co-authors at Stanford as ‘the first personnel economist’, he was also a founding member of IGM’s US panel and an important contributor to launching our project of polling economics experts on vital policy issues.

 
Europe

Wealth Taxes

This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) A wealth tax would be an effective way to reduce inequality.

B) A wealth tax in a form discussed in the UK (where individuals could be taxed a percentage of their net worth over £750,000, excluding any personal pension savings and their main home) would be an effective way to improve public finances after the Covid-19 crisis.

C) A public policy goal that could be accomplished with a well-enforced wealth tax could be accomplished at lower cost with modifications to existing taxes, such as income tax, capital gains tax, inheritance tax and property tax. 
Europe

Antitrust in the Digital Economy

In October, the US Department of Justice launched a federal antitrust lawsuit against Google, accusing the technology giant of abusing its dominance in the market for internet search. We invited both our US and European panels to express their views on some of the issues surrounding this case. We asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

 
Europe

Objectives of the European Central Bank

This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) The ECB should aim to achieve an inflation rate that averages 2% over time.

B) The ECB should take account of the environmental implications of its policy decisions.

C) The objectives set for the ECB by Treaty should make maximum sustainable employment of equal importance as price stability. 
Europe

European Economic Recovery

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Right now, the central focus of fiscal policy should be on temporary measures to provide protection and promote rapid economic recovery rather than trying to advance other objectives, such as reducing debt, tackling climate change or addressing inequality.

B) Cutting taxes on firms (or delaying tax collection) will allow more of them to survive and be more effective than public spending for triggering a rapid economic recovery.

C) European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should be primarily in the form of grants rather than loans.

D) European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should not be made on condition of commitments to reform by recipients.