European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Tariffs, Reciprocal and Retaliatory

Europe

Tariffs, Reciprocal and Retaliatory

Question A:

Matching US import tariffs to the tariffs, value-added taxes and non-tariff barriers imposed on US goods by other countries would substantially reduce the US trade deficit.

Responses

22%

15%

30%

24%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

The threat of retaliation against the imposition of higher tariffs on a country’s exports substantially lowers the probability of a trade war.

Responses

22%

43%

26%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

In the event that the threat of retaliation does not deter the imposition of tariffs, the economies of countries subject to higher tariffs on their exports would be measurably better off by responding with targeted tariffs on imports from the first mover.

Responses

22%

20%

26%

28%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

March 11, 2025

Immigration to Germany and the EU

Europe

Immigration to Germany and the EU

Question A:

The wave of immigration to Germany after 2015 (and up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine) has been a net positive for the country's economy.

Responses

24%

33%

30%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Immigration to EU countries has been a net positive for government finances, adding substantially more in tax revenues than the increased costs associated with integration of immigrants.

Responses

24%

33%

26%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Given Europe's low and falling fertility rates (from seven million births per year in 1960 to four million today), maintaining its position as a world economic power will require increased immigration over the medium term.

Responses

24%

13%

11%

41%

11%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

February 20, 2025

US Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement

Europe

US Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement

This European survey examines: Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/putting-america-first-in-international-environmental-agreements/

'In recent years, the United States has purported to join international agreements and initiatives that do not reflect our country's values or our contributions to the pursuit of economic and environmental objectives... The United States Ambassador to the United Nations shall immediately submit formal written notification of the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.'

(a) US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement will deliver a measurable boost to the country's economic growth over the next four years; (b) US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement will have a measurably negative impact on international progress on mitigation of global warming

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

February 5, 2025

Trade Policy

Europe

Trade Policy

This European survey examines (a) A baseline US tariff of 10% on all European imported goods would have substantially damaging economic consequences for many countries in Europe; (b) Rather than responding to threatened tariffs with retaliatory measures, unilaterally opening EU markets to US exports would deliver better outcomes for European industry; (c) Disruptions to global supply chains from new tariffs and trade wars will lead to measurably slower global growth over the next five years

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

January 23, 2025

Europe’s Defense Sector

Europe

Europe’s Defense Sector

This European survey examines (a) The likely need for increased European public investment in defense should come with substantial reallocations of public budgets at the national and EU levels; (b) Greater use of joint EU-level procurement of military equipment and defense research/innovation would promote substantially enhanced capacity in Europe's defense industry; (c) Increased defense spending would deliver a measurable boost to economic growth in Europe over the next five years

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

December 19, 2024

Global Warming

Europe

Global Warming

This European survey examines (a) On the basis of current climate policy commitments and potential technology and market responses, my current best estimate for global warming is that average global temperatures by 2100 will rise to no more than 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels

Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources

December 4, 2024

Economics and Elections

Europe

Economics and Elections

This European survey examines (a) A period of high inflation is substantially more electorally damaging to incumbent governments in advanced countries than a period of high unemployment; (b) Voters are more likely to punish incumbents for what they perceive as poor national economic performance than they are to reward incumbents for a good economy

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

November 21, 2024

Institutions and Prosperity

Europe

Institutions and Prosperity

This European survey examines (a) The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes; (b) On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government; (c) Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

October 22, 2024

Constraints on Innovation in Europe

Europe

Constraints on Innovation in Europe

This European survey examines (a) Current enforcement of competition policy in Europe is not working to promote innovation and growth; b) European Union bureaucracy and regulations are a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe; c) The conduct of the dominant US tech companies in European markets (including lobbying and acquisition of start-ups and competitors) is a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

October 3, 2024

Corporate Social Responsibility

Europe

Corporate Social Responsibility

This European survey examines (a) In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, the average public company generates more benefits than costs in terms of profits, (b) In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, public companies would benefit from a measurably lower cost of capital, (c) There are substantial social benefits when managers of public companies make choices that account for the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members beyond the effects on shareholders

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

September 12, 2024