Question A:
Over the past 25 years, the income of the median European citizen has declined substantially relative to the income of the median American citizen.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The living standards of the median European are not substantially lower than those of the median American.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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![]() Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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US growth has been relatively strong the last few years while European growth has been barely positive.
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![]() Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is a bit too vague for me to answer definitely. The question is about changes, not levels, and medians not averages. Hard! I imagine the answer is Yes for most European countries, but No for a few Eastern European countries (Poland, Romania) that have grown A LOT since 2001.
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![]() Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is not what the data tell us. It is important not to rely on market exchange rates, but rather to think in PPP terms. In PPP terms, there is no such decline. Furthermore, productivity has increased at a similar rate in the US and the EU.
-see background information here |
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![]() Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Which income, pre or post tax? It is not clear that pre-tax median income in the US has grown more than in Europe with a higher increase in inequality (US mean has grown more than median). And post-tax median income with more redistribution in most European countries even more so
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![]() Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There has been a decrease but I would not use the word substantial given the magnitude.
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![]() Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The income of the mean citizen in Europe has declined relative to the mean citizen in the US. For the median, I would have to look closer into the data. Also, how do we define the median European citizen? Do we treat Europe as one country?
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![]() Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The key is median: income inequality in Europe as a whole seems to have been declining, but not in the US. If the median income gap is widening, probably it is not by much. Garicano points are valid, but would not sufficiently affect this particular metric..
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![]() Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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My hunch is that the discrepancies in income between US and EU have risen at the upper and lower quartile in opposite directions - but they were constant for the median household. The gap is negative in the upper quartile (US>EU), and negative in the lowest quartile (EU>US.
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![]() Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It really depends on where the median European citizen lives. It may well be in a country like Czechia or Slovenia, which converged toward the US in the last 25 years.
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![]() Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is relative decline for median citizen or household but it is modest when income is adj. for taxes, inflation & PPP. It is more pronounced using GDP per capita at market exch rates or when comparing top of income distribution. Also not a decline against all countries.
-see background information here |
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![]() Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Median is different to mean. US median income stagnated post GFC until around 2018 then rose post COVID. Former communist bloc EU countries median income grew considerably during the last 25 years.
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![]() Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is a fact. It is iInteresting to discuss whether different definitions of income for comparison purposes make the gap more or less substantial. But a fall is still a fall.
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![]() Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Median income growth has been roughly equal in the US and Europe since 2000, although there is large heterogeneity. Income growth has been higher in Eastern Europe and lower in Germany
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![]() Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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PPP-adjusted disposable income gap between EU and US is approximately the same today (~35% lower income in EU comp to US) as in the early 2000s. Differs across countries, though. E.g. has increased w Germany, Italy and Greece; decreased w Sweden, Romania, Poland,...
-see background information here |
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![]() Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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European median incomes appear to have declined when expressed in USD. But the picture is less clear when doing PPP adjustments. Much more work is needed to agree on this basic indicator.
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![]() Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If measured as per capita GDP PPP adjusted
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends how the term living standards are interpreted. In terms of incomes the median European is not doing well. But in terms of lifestyle people in countries like Italy and France live well.
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![]() Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, lots of heterogeneity there. Plus, it matters whether living standards are just about cost of living, or about other things such as life expectancy or other non-economic factors.
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![]() Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I would even say quite the contrary. First, there is no relative decline in income. Second, working hours are lower in Europe, and on average other indicators, such as health outcomes, are better as well. Overall, European countries therefore seem to perform better.
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![]() Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Substantially lower sounds much stronger than what the data suggests.
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![]() Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Too much lifestyle variation across Europe, and different degrees of government provision of welfare services to be sure. Measured disposable income differences are not dispositive.
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![]() Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The attention of observers is mostly focused on the upper end of income levels and living standards where US level seems to be substantially above the European ones. But for the median household these differences are much smaller, or do not exist at all.
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![]() Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The median European citizen does not live in the highest-income countries.
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![]() Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Large gap if liv stds = GDP/capita at current rates. But adjusting for PPP & hours worked, US & North-Western Europe are close in income. Not true for all of Europe. If liv stds include health care, education, public services (& happiness), no gap or much of Europe ahead of US.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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![]() Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Various pieces of evidence show much higher life expectancy, lower infant mortality rates and morbidity, and much lower deaths of despair.
Regional and ethnic inequalities are much lower in Europe.
Even upward intergenerational mobility is HIGHER in many EU countries.
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![]() Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Besides lower incomes, Europeans also have less personal comfort: smaller homes, no air-conditioning, fewer cars, more red tape. They tend to work less and compete less, which can be viewed as a plus or minus depending on how much you like your job and how competitive you are.
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![]() Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Statistics do not lie.
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![]() Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Median disposable income is roughly twice as large in the US. But certain government services such as health care are still better in Europe. On balance, living standards for the median household are better in the US
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![]() Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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PPP-adjusted disposable income in EU is clearly lower, but accounting for dree healthcare, free or highly subsidized higher education, and more leisure time, I would say that median quality of living is higher in EU comp to US.
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![]() Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Going beyond real incomes, Europe seems to perform better when it comes to other indicators relevant for wellbeing, including health (e.g., life expectancy), violence (e.g. homicide or overdose death rates), etc.
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![]() Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Less income but better place to live for low incomes.
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![]() John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If measured in real domestic terms and taking into account life quality (leisure, life expectancy, health services, etc.)
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