America Versus Europe

Question A:

Over the past 25 years, the income of the median European citizen has declined substantially relative to the income of the median American citizen.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

The living standards of the median European are not substantially lower than those of the median American.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
US growth has been relatively strong the last few years while European growth has been barely positive.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
This is a bit too vague for me to answer definitely. The question is about changes, not levels, and medians not averages. Hard! I imagine the answer is Yes for most European countries, but No for a few Eastern European countries (Poland, Romania) that have grown A LOT since 2001.
Auriol
Emmanuelle Auriol
Toulouse School of Economics
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Botticini
Maristella Botticini
Bocconi
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Cagé
Julia Cagé
Sciences Po
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
This is not what the data tell us. It is important not to rely on market exchange rates, but rather to think in PPP terms. In PPP terms, there is no such decline. Furthermore, productivity has increased at a similar rate in the US and the EU.
-see background information here
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Which income, pre or post tax? It is not clear that pre-tax median income in the US has grown more than in Europe with a higher increase in inequality (US mean has grown more than median). And post-tax median income with more redistribution in most European countries even more so
Fatás
Antonio Fatás
INSEAD
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
There has been a decrease but I would not use the word substantial given the magnitude.
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
The income of the mean citizen in Europe has declined relative to the mean citizen in the US. For the median, I would have to look closer into the data. Also, how do we define the median European citizen? Do we treat Europe as one country?
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Gorodnichenko
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
London Business School
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
The key is median: income inequality in Europe as a whole seems to have been declining, but not in the US. If the median income gap is widening, probably it is not by much. Garicano points are valid, but would not sufficiently affect this particular metric..
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
My hunch is that the discrepancies in income between US and EU have risen at the upper and lower quartile in opposite directions - but they were constant for the median household. The gap is negative in the upper quartile (US>EU), and negative in the lowest quartile (EU>US.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
It really depends on where the median European citizen lives. It may well be in a country like Czechia or Slovenia, which converged toward the US in the last 25 years.
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
There is relative decline for median citizen or household but it is modest when income is adj. for taxes, inflation & PPP. It is more pronounced using GDP per capita at market exch rates or when comparing top of income distribution. Also not a decline against all countries.
-see background information here
Manova
Kalina Manova
University College London
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Papaioannou
Elias Papaioannou
London Business School
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Median is different to mean. US median income stagnated post GFC until around 2018 then rose post COVID. Former communist bloc EU countries median income grew considerably during the last 25 years.
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
This is a fact. It is iInteresting to discuss whether different definitions of income for comparison purposes make the gap more or less substantial. But a fall is still a fall.
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Median income growth has been roughly equal in the US and Europe since 2000, although there is large heterogeneity. Income growth has been higher in Eastern Europe and lower in Germany
Strömberg
Per Strömberg
Stockholm School of Economics
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
PPP-adjusted disposable income gap between EU and US is approximately the same today (~35% lower income in EU comp to US) as in the early 2000s. Differs across countries, though. E.g. has increased w Germany, Italy and Greece; decreased w Sweden, Romania, Poland,...
-see background information here
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Tenreyro
Silvana Tenreyro
LSE
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
European median incomes appear to have declined when expressed in USD. But the picture is less clear when doing PPP adjustments. Much more work is needed to agree on this basic indicator.
Van der Ploeg
Rick Van der Ploeg
Oxford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
If measured as per capita GDP PPP adjusted

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
It depends how the term living standards are interpreted. In terms of incomes the median European is not doing well. But in terms of lifestyle people in countries like Italy and France live well.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Again, lots of heterogeneity there. Plus, it matters whether living standards are just about cost of living, or about other things such as life expectancy or other non-economic factors.
Auriol
Emmanuelle Auriol
Toulouse School of Economics
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Botticini
Maristella Botticini
Bocconi
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Cagé
Julia Cagé
Sciences Po
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
I would even say quite the contrary. First, there is no relative decline in income. Second, working hours are lower in Europe, and on average other indicators, such as health outcomes, are better as well. Overall, European countries therefore seem to perform better.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Fatás
Antonio Fatás
INSEAD
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Substantially lower sounds much stronger than what the data suggests.
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Gorodnichenko
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Berkeley
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
London Business School
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Too much lifestyle variation across Europe, and different degrees of government provision of welfare services to be sure. Measured disposable income differences are not dispositive.
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
The attention of observers is mostly focused on the upper end of income levels and living standards where US level seems to be substantially above the European ones. But for the median household these differences are much smaller, or do not exist at all.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
The median European citizen does not live in the highest-income countries.
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Large gap if liv stds = GDP/capita at current rates. But adjusting for PPP & hours worked, US & North-Western Europe are close in income. Not true for all of Europe. If liv stds include health care, education, public services (& happiness), no gap or much of Europe ahead of US.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Manova
Kalina Manova
University College London
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Papaioannou
Elias Papaioannou
London Business School
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Various pieces of evidence show much higher life expectancy, lower infant mortality rates and morbidity, and much lower deaths of despair. Regional and ethnic inequalities are much lower in Europe. Even upward intergenerational mobility is HIGHER in many EU countries.
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Besides lower incomes, Europeans also have less personal comfort: smaller homes, no air-conditioning, fewer cars, more red tape. They tend to work less and compete less, which can be viewed as a plus or minus depending on how much you like your job and how competitive you are.
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Statistics do not lie.
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Median disposable income is roughly twice as large in the US. But certain government services such as health care are still better in Europe. On balance, living standards for the median household are better in the US
Strömberg
Per Strömberg
Stockholm School of Economics
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
PPP-adjusted disposable income in EU is clearly lower, but accounting for dree healthcare, free or highly subsidized higher education, and more leisure time, I would say that median quality of living is higher in EU comp to US.
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Tenreyro
Silvana Tenreyro
LSE
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Going beyond real incomes, Europe seems to perform better when it comes to other indicators relevant for wellbeing, including health (e.g., life expectancy), violence (e.g. homicide or overdose death rates), etc.
Van der Ploeg
Rick Van der Ploeg
Oxford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Less income but better place to live for low incomes.
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
If measured in real domestic terms and taking into account life quality (leisure, life expectancy, health services, etc.)