Question A:
Without extension of the expanded public subsidies for Affordable Care Act healthcare plans, there would be a substantial rise in the number of Americans without health insurance.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Losses in the health and well-being of Americans who could no longer afford health insurance in the absence of the subsidies would exceed the savings from the expiration.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
The possible need for subsidies substantially in excess of those initially provided by the ACA indicates that other changes in the healthcare system are needed to enable broad-based access.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This clearly depends on how we value the wellbeing of the less well off population-being insured seems to be especially important for psychological well-being
|
||||
 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Incomplete evidence on impacts of those impacted by ACA subsidies. Best evidence on benefits is:
-see background information here |
||||
 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It is difficult to be precise about this trade-off, but experience shows that health insurance is cost effective in improving well being and shifting medical care away from emergency services to most cost-effective measures.
|
||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
All this depends on how health and well-being are valued, of course.
|
||||
 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
My somewhat distant reading is that there is mixed evidence on the health effects of having insurance
|
||||
 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Hard to lnow
|
||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There may be more cost effective ways of achieving the same gain in health, but there is little doubt that the ACA subsidies are (were)
|
||||
 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I found this difficult to interpret. We can deliver broad based healthcare without changing the system but it is likely to be cheaper if we take that route
|
||||
|
Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
May require changes in health system OR other parts of our economic system.
|
||||
|
Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The system we have now doesn't match the one that was designed initially.
|
||||
|
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The current US health care system stands out among developed nations by spending more while achieving less.
|
||||
|
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Not a great question: what's the standard for "broad-based"? That our health care system needs fundamental change is beyond doubt, of course.
|
||||
|
Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
We pay high prices and get mediocre outcomes so we know the system is bad but those making the big bucks will fight to keep the status quo.
|
||||
|
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ivan Werning |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
