US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Ethanol

Question A:

Ethanol content requirements and protectionism against imported ethanol (which includes fuel from sugarcane) raise food prices without significantly reducing carbon-dioxide emissions.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

A direct disincentive to emit carbon-dioxide, for example through a carbon tax or an emissions permit market, is more efficient than requiring the use of corn-based ethanol fuels.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

September 19, 2012

European Debt

Question A:

Even if all the official-sector funding that Greece received from 2010 through August 2012 is written off, propping up Greece to buy time for the rest of Europe to prepare for Greek default has been better for citizens of the Eurozone outside of Greece than a policy that would have cut off funding sooner.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

A substantial sovereign-debt default by some combination of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain is a necessary condition for the euro area as a whole to grow at its pre-crisis trend rate over the next three years.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Unless there is a substantial default by some combination of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain on their sovereign debt and commercial bank debt, plus credible reforms to prevent excessive borrowing in the future, the euro area is headed for a costly financial meltdown and a prolonged recession.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

September 11, 2012

Trade Barriers for Sugar

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

The current trade barriers in the U.S. sugar industry raise the profits of sugar producers and make the typical U.S. consumer pay more for sugar and goods that use sugar as an input.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

August 27, 2012

Student Loans

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A. Loans to students attending for-profit colleges are especially risky because students attending them have had default rates that greatly exceed those for comparable students attending public and non-profit private institutions.

B. Rules that tie each college's eligibility for federal student loans to its students' graduation rates and post-schooling employment outcomes would better protect taxpayers from losses on student loans.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

August 21, 2012

Money Market Funds

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A. The way in which money market funds normally trade – at one dollar per share, even though the per-share value of the assets backing them varies over time – made them vulnerable to a run in 2008 before they received taxpayer guarantees.

B. Taxpayers would be better protected if each money market fund in the U.S. were instead required to trade at its floating net asset value.

C. In the absence of floating net asset values, taxpayers would be better protected if each money market fund in the U.S. were required to set aside capital to protect against losses while holding back a portion of shareholders' cash for a time when they seek to withdraw all of their money.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

August 14, 2012

Obesity and Soft Drinks

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Taxes or bans on large bottles of soft drinks containing sugar are not likely to have a significant effect on obesity rates because people will substitute towards consuming excessive calories in other ways.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

August 7, 2012

Online Sales Taxes

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Subjecting online sales from out-of-state vendors to the same retail sales taxes imposed on in-state sales would raise more tax revenue in the states making this change while reducing the pro-online bias of current policy.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

July 31, 2012

Cable-Satellite TV Fees

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Consumers would not necessarily be better off if cable and satellite TV firms were required to offer a la carte pricing for individual channels, because the networks' programming charges and the satellite-and-cable fees could adjust in response to this rule.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

July 24, 2012

Healthcare and Taxes

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Long run fiscal sustainability in the U.S. will require cuts in currently promised Medicare and Medicaid benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

July 18, 2012

Europe

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Assuming that Germany eventually agrees to backstop the debt of southern European countries, the eurozone as a whole will be better off if that bailout is unconditional, rather than accompanied by the labor market reforms and future budget controls that Germany is demanding of countries in return.

B) If Germany fails to bail out the southern tier of Europe, its own economy will be hurt more — because of output and asset losses — than it would be by an unconditional bailout.

C) The main reason other eurozone countries need to worry about Greek banks losing access to ECB support is because the ensuing chaos in Greece could trigger bank runs in peripheral countries.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

July 3, 2012

Ethanol

Responses

Responses

European Debt

Responses

Responses

Responses

Trade Barriers for Sugar

Student Loans

Money Market Funds

Obesity and Soft Drinks

Online Sales Taxes

Cable-Satellite TV Fees

Healthcare and Taxes

Europe

Topics

Popular "On Global Markets" Articles

Shorting-selling is as Old as Financial Markets

Communications Confusion

The Fed’s New Approach: The Balance Sheet

Recent Polls

Municipal Grocery Stores In New York City

Defense Spending

Defense Spending

Tax Alpha Investment Strategies

The UK and Europe

Share on Mastodon