US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Repatriated Profits

Question A:

Lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits for a year would boost US capital investment significantly.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Permanently lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits, such as by moving to a territorial-based tax system, would boost US capital investment significantly.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

November 25, 2014

Fast-Track Authority

Question A:

By lowering bargaining costs, fast-track negotiating authority for the president makes it more likely that the U.S. can conclude major trade deals.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Past major trade deals have benefited most Americans.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

November 11, 2014

Amazon and Market Power

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A: Amazon has monopsony power in the market for books that is significantly reducing the supply of books.

B: Amazon has sufficient monopsony power that regulatory intervention is likely to make consumers of books better off, taking into account implementation costs and the effect of intervention on incentives.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

October 28, 2014

Piketty on Inequality

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

The most powerful force pushing towards greater wealth inequality in the US since the 1970s is the gap between the after-tax return on capital and the economic growth rate.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

October 14, 2014

Taxi Competition

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Letting car services such as Uber or Lyft compete with taxi firms on equal footing regarding genuine safety and insurance requirements, but without restrictions on prices or routes, raises consumer welfare.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

September 29, 2014

Scottish Independence

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Although there are many issues for Scotland’s voters to consider, one consequence of separating from the rest of the UK would be greater macroeconomic instability for Scotland for many years.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

September 15, 2014

Infrastructure (revisited)

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A: Because the US has underspent on new projects, maintenance, or both, the federal government has an opportunity to increase average incomes by spending more on roads, railways, bridges and airports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)

B: Past experience of public spending and political economy suggests that if the government spent more on roads, railways, bridges and airports, many of the projects would have low or negative returns. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

September 9, 2014

U.S. State Budgets (revisited)

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A: By discounting pension liabilities at high interest rates under government accounting standards, many U.S. state and local governments understate their pension liabilities and the costs of providing pensions to public-sector workers. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)

B: During the next two decades some U.S. states, unless they substantially increase taxes, cut spending, and/or change public-sector pensions, will require a combination of severe austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and/or default. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

August 26, 2014

Fracking (revisited)

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

August 12, 2014

Economic Stimulus (revisited)

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A: Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on February 15, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)

B: Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

July 29, 2014