Question A:
For reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, subsidies for R&D on low-carbon technologies are justified in addition to carbon pricing mechanisms like carbon taxes and cap-and-trade systems.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Higher subsidies for R&D on low-carbon energy sources are justified by the fact that their successful deployment would not only reduce emissions but also induce developing countries to substitute away from fossil fuels.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is an implication of directed technical change. With no other distortions, exogenous technology, carbon tax would be enough. But when technology is endogenous, this isn't sufficient to create a powerful enough switch to green technology and support for clean R&D is critical
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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These policies are complements.
-see background information here |
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The externalities suggest government interventions like these.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A subsidy is now and certain. An investor cannot be certain of future carbon taxes.
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carbon taxes and cap and trade are unpopular and so subsidies, although inferior, may be the only political feasible approach
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is pointless for states or countries to engage in mitigation unless it is part of a global mitigation agreement. R&D subsidies will help reduce emissions everywhere.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The devil is in the details. Western Europe has hurt itself considerably by incentivizing low carbon activities.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is a "yes" with a lot of caveats: valuable to fund basic research, having the government pick industry or technology winners often doesn't go well.
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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C pricing is most important, but there are further issues with underinvestment in basic research that require subsidies. Moreover, the spillovers from low-carbon technologies will help for areas with no or low C prices.
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emissions give rise to externalities that distort the allocation given our current technology, as well as externalities that distort incentives for undertaking R&D to shape future technology. A suite of policy tools is needed to address these externalities.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is a general case for R&D subsidies (in all activities) because innovators do not capture the full value of their innovation. The difficulty lies in deciding which R&D activities are most valuable. I'm not convinced that governments are capable of doing that
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 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even if you get the marginal price right, there can still be positive externalities in the research into emissions-reducing technologies.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Iff the carbon tax is too low then yes.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Taxes or cap and trade can be quite effective for addressing the environmental threat, but there remains the critical innovation externality that justifies intervention - subsides, prizes, advance market commitments or otherwise for research and development.
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 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Strong economic targetting principles imply ONLY carbon "Pigouvian" taxes or quotas are best, but this requires assumptions that are not good approximations today: it requires a fully cooperative world carbon tax and no externalities from innovations (a "neoclassical" setting).
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Advances in clean technology in one country will create beneficial spillovers on the transition of other countries.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See research by Michael Greenstone.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The total reserves of cheaply accessible fossil fuels is enormous. We can't ask poor countries to sacrifice growth to cut emissions. The only way to cut emissions is to create alternative technologies.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, it depends on what the costs are relative to benefits. Carbon reduction has been very costly to Western Europe and could be very costly in the short-run to less developed countries with unclear long run benefits.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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getting the non OECD countries to address climate change is essential.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Really the ame point as to first question.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is not the only justification: this R&D has spillovers to other climate-friendly technologies that are not appropriated by the R&D investors themselves. This is the classic justification for R&D subsidies. But lowering fossil fuel distortions abroad is also a justification.
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The relevant question is the cost of R&D subsidies versus an alternative policy, e.g. subsidies to the use of green energy in developing countries.
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends whether the low income countries want to reduce emissions. Trump seems to want to increase them. Pro coal, anti wind!
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is one of the most important dimensions of adjustment.
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes. Following up on my previous response: when lacking full cooperation on carbon taxes, a subsidy on green energy use or its innovation may be desirable for everyone. If we cannot tax the "bad" subsidize the "good".
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