There is no evidence to suggest that the employment estimates produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are biased so as to favor any particular political party.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I had the privilege of serving on the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee for many years. I was always impressed with the dedication of the BLS, Census, and BEA leadership and staff to producing the high quality data with limited resources.
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Revisions are routine, and tend to be larger when economic conditions are changing rapidly. McEntarfer is a non-partisan economist and BLS' procedures are consistent, credible, and not subject to manipulation. No evidence supports the slander that BLS estimates were 'rigged.'
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![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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at least I am not aware of any evidence.
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In recent years, the BLS has produced inflation and employment data inconvenient to both parties. If we wanted to pursue the laudable goal of improving timely accuracy at the BLS, the 1st steps would be reversing the DOGE cuts and restoring and even strengthening FESAC.
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This would have to be the largest conspiracy ever, without any information getting out.
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I have heard nothing credible to the contrary.
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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BLS statistics are produced in a way that has been consistent for many years. The staff who conduct the surveys and compute the statistics are non-partisan. They are interested only in accurate data and statistics. The BLS produces many statistics so that we can choose among them
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![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Besides the fact that you can't see patterns that suggest this in the revisions, if you know anything about how the numbers are constructed, it would take a vast conspiracy to pull something like that off. Let's hope the current process is preserved with more BLS staff funding.
-see background information here |
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![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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BLS data collection and processing is done by dedicated professionals without regard to politics. Their credible, independent work is vital for guiding policy to promote general welfare.
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![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The BLS has a long history of expert and objective data analysis.
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![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trump emulates “electoral autocrats” like Erdogan and Orbán by seizing control of stats agencies. BEA may be next; autocrats typically inflate GDP (Martinez, 2022). Private efforts, like Cavallo’s in Kirchner’s Argentina, may offer alternatives, but lack federal precision.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Trump Admin. and its supporters have provided no such evidence.
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![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Large data revisions and low response rates are worrisome, but there is no evidence that they reflect political bias.
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![]() Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The U.S. has long had a well-deserved reputation for reliable economics statistics. Unlike China, the old USSR, and other countries where economic data were manipulated for political ends. Trump's firing of the BLS head can only damage the reputation of the U.S.
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![]() Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Statistical uncertainty that ends up resolving the way someone does not like is not political bias.
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![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The BLS provides accurate, trustworthy, timely, relevant data that can be used to guide policy and inform decision-making by government officials and the public. Firing the bearer of bad news is not only pathetic and childish, but also immensly costly.
-see background information here |
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![]() Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I know of no credible evidence documenting such bias. There are numerous technical and bureaucratic safeguards. Past allegations have been investigated and lacked support. The incentives to find and document such a bias, if it existed, are high within the economics profession.
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