Question A:
The proposed Trump Accounts (https://trumpaccounts.gov/) will provide an initial savings deposit of $1,000 from the US Treasury to eligible children born between 2025 and 2028, and allow up to $5,000 a year in additional private contributions.
The proposed Trump Accounts will substantially improve long-term wealth accumulation.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The proposed Trump Accounts will substantially reduce income inequality among future generations.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
The proposed Trump Accounts will substantially increase support for free-market capitalism over socialism.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 John Campbell |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tax incentives can cause substitution from other forms of saving. The effect on total saving may be too weak to deserve the adjective "substantial".
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 John Cochrane |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesca Cornelli |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Douglas Diamond |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Wenxin Du |
HBS | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eugene Fama |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Gabaix |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Itay Goldstein |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Graham |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Campbell R. Harvey |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is unlikely to "substantially" improve wealth accumulation. We have $38.1 trillion in debt and a $1.9 trillion deficit. We need to borrow even more to fund this initiative.
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 Harrison Hong |
Columbia | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Wei Jiang |
Emory Goizueta | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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will increase it, but do not know about substantially.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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At the aggregate, national level this can't possibly be true as a matter of arithmetic. Substantial means we will see national wealth in 20 years that is definitely different.
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 Camelia Kuhnen |
UNC Kenan-Flagler | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Andrew Lo |
MIT Sloan | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Michelle Lowry |
Drexel LeBow | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sydney Ludvigson |
NYU | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Matteo Maggiori |
Stanford GSB | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Gregor Matvos |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Tobias Moskowitz |
Yale School of Management | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Stefan Nagel |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Those with some wealth already have other tax-advantaged savings vehicles available (e.g., 529 accounts), and the $1000 seed funds are not enough to have a substantial effect.
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 Jonathan Parker |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The accounts are not funded but are merely more debt that sit on the liability side of the balance sheet for all Americans. Those with accounts are likely to save less in other means. National wealth accumulation may well go down.
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 Christine Parlour |
Berkeley Haas | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Thomas Philippon |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Manju Puri |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael R. Roberts |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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They will help but probably not "substantially."
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 Paola Sapienza |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amit Seru |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Stambaugh |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Laura Starks |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jeremy Stein |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Johannes Stroebel |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Will depend on the exact design (can you take out earlier, etc.), but several thousand dollars of extra savings at age 18 is meaningful for many Americans.
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 Sheridan Titman |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
Columbia Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Devil will be in the details - tax-free employer contributions could substantially increase the amount. Limits on how early people can take money out/what they can use it for, etc. $2500 invested at 8% for 18 years becomes $10,000.
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 Toni Whited |
UMich Ross School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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John Campbell |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Responses to tax incentives are typically stronger among people who are better off to start with.
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John Cochrane |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesca Cornelli |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Douglas Diamond |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wenxin Du |
HBS | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eugene Fama |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Gabaix |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Itay Goldstein |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Graham |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Campbell R. Harvey |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is unlikely to "substantially" have a positive or negative effect.
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Harrison Hong |
Columbia | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wei Jiang |
Emory Goizueta | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Will helo, but do not know about substantially.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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see the prior comment
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Camelia Kuhnen |
UNC Kenan-Flagler | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Andrew Lo |
MIT Sloan | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michelle Lowry |
Drexel LeBow | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sydney Ludvigson |
NYU | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Matteo Maggiori |
Stanford GSB | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Gregor Matvos |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Tobias Moskowitz |
Yale School of Management | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Stefan Nagel |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not substantially, for the same reasons as in the previous question.
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Jonathan Parker |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A lot depends on who pays for this government expenditure and how people's saving behavior changes in response. If Trump pays -- the website states that these payments are courtesy of him -- then, yes it would reduce income inequality. Otherwise, who knows?
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Christine Parlour |
Berkeley Haas | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Thomas Philippon |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Manju Puri |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael R. Roberts |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Helpful but not a solution.
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Paola Sapienza |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amit Seru |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Stambaugh |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Laura Starks |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jeremy Stein |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Johannes Stroebel |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The 'income' from the extra savings/wealth will be small.
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Sheridan Titman |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
Columbia Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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this is about wealth accumulation, not income, so no clear effect on income inequality. Maybe they will help pay for education, and reduce income inequality that way, but they could also disincentivize work, which could raise income inequality.
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Toni Whited |
UMich Ross School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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John Campbell |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trump accounts are only one small part of the landscape of tax-favored accounts, and unlikely to have a large political effect.
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John Cochrane |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trust funders are pretty socialist now.
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Francesca Cornelli |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Douglas Diamond |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wenxin Du |
HBS | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eugene Fama |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Gabaix |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Itay Goldstein |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Graham |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Campbell R. Harvey |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is unlikely to "substantially" support capitalism. This program is funded by even more debt. The interest service on Federal debt is already $1.2 trillion per year. While the program may be well intentioned, we need to first put our fiscal house in order.
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Harrison Hong |
Columbia | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wei Jiang |
Emory Goizueta | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, will help (as will the Dell gift), but depends on what substantially means.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are likely to be many kids that would otherwise have no savings that will be watching these accounts grow.
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Camelia Kuhnen |
UNC Kenan-Flagler | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Andrew Lo |
MIT Sloan | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michelle Lowry |
Drexel LeBow | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sydney Ludvigson |
NYU | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Matteo Maggiori |
Stanford GSB | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Gregor Matvos |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Tobias Moskowitz |
Yale School of Management | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Stefan Nagel |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Parker |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Interesting idea. Possibly?
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Christine Parlour |
Berkeley Haas | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Thomas Philippon |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Manju Puri |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael R. Roberts |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A bit of irony in asking if the government giving people money will improve free-market capitalism...Again, "substantially" is unlikely.
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Paola Sapienza |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amit Seru |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Stambaugh |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Laura Starks |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jeremy Stein |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Johannes Stroebel |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Given low participation rates, there are things that are appealing about giving more individuals a (small) stake in the performance of the stock market.
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Sheridan Titman |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
Columbia Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Having people grow up with investment accounts creates familiarity with investing and promotes financial literacy, which is good for trust in market-based system
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Toni Whited |
UMich Ross School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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