AI and Growth

Huge uncertainty. Substantial growth effects require applications that can increase productivity. These aren't around yet. While future capabilities could be much better than now, it takes time for these applications to be perfected and then adopted in complex organizations.
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On average!

I clicked "agree," despite my uncertainty around my median scenario of higher income. So far, it seems like AI leads to productivity gains. Is AI a substitute or complement for labor, and what kinds of labor? It's too early to say, as far as I can tell.

AI may lead to higher productivity. AI may lead to less education and lower productivity. AI may be trained on junk data created by AI trained on junk data created by AI in the future. The future of AI is even more uncertain than the future usually is.

AI has the potential to transform the way we live, but whether it will lead to higher growth of income per capita depends on many factors, including policy responses.

The potential is certainly there. The variance in GDP per capita is also likely to increase, which could lead to policies that slow progress.

The stock market seems to think so.
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While there is general agreement that AI will bolster, there's considerable uncertainty about the timeframe of that bolstering.

AI should bring productivity gains. It remains to be seen whether these can be integrated smoothly enough the the gains shared widely enough to avoid disruption.

My response pertains to the NIPA concept of national income which includes corporate profits. I'm less confident about the sign for personal income.

I expect substantial gains. It is possible, even likely, that the initially measured productivity gains will understate true productivity growth (though with a corresponding overstatement in future years).
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The aggregate effects of AI will be positive but whether or not they will be substantial remains highly uncertain and debatable.