Question A:
The markets for consumer and business payment services would be substantially more efficient if payments by stablecoins (privately issued digital tokens pegged to a fiat currency) became an accepted alternative to traditional payments.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Ten years from now, stablecoins will account for a substantial share of payment flows and deposits in the global banking system.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 John Campbell |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stablecoins do not have inherent advantages over other digital technologies for payments settlement.
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 John Cochrane |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Uncertain. Stable coin is not technologically simpler than central ledger. It seems to offer regulatory work around, for example creating effectively narrow banks and payments oriented money market funds that the Fed and other regulators will now not allow with conventional tech.
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 Francesca Cornelli |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Douglas Diamond |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Wenxin Du |
HBS | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If stablecoins become widely accepted (which is not all that likely), the added competition for banks would increase efficiency. Bank-railed payment services would improve and interchange fees for credit cards would decline significantly.
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 Janice Eberly |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eugene Fama |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on the method of exchange, not just the medium of exchange.
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 Xavier Gabaix |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Itay Goldstein |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Graham |
Duke Fuqua | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Campbell R. Harvey |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Efficiency: 1) Near instant transfers anywhere in world on Layer 2s; 2) miniscule fees (no swipe fee); 3) secure (100% collateralized with safe assets under GENIUS); 4) much needed backup system (does not use banking system, offers an alternative if problems w/ banking system).
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 Harrison Hong |
Columbia | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Wei Jiang |
Emory Goizueta | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't see the use case for the US, other than perhaps cross-border payments. FedNOW can solve most of this. This is still mostly about crypto to crypto transactions
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 Ralph Koijen |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Camelia Kuhnen |
UNC Kenan-Flagler | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Andrew Lo |
MIT Sloan | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Michelle Lowry |
Drexel LeBow | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sydney Ludvigson |
NYU | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Matteo Maggiori |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Big difference between domestic and international payments. Also might be more efficient than current system (very inefficient) but a lot less than a modern publicly provided payment infrastructure (combo of digital currency and modern payment system)
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 Gregor Matvos |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Tobias Moskowitz |
Yale School of Management | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We have no idea at this point.
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 Stefan Nagel |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In some countries yes, but not clear it will be true in others where the payment system is already quite efficient (assuming that rules concerning KYC and AML still apply to stablecoin transactions, too).
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 Jonathan Parker |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are extremely well-developed payments rails using traditional ledgers and currencies. Stablecoins have no technological advantage, and blockchain based coins are less efficient. They have only a regulatory advantage. MMMFs regulated like stablecoins would be more efficient.
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 Christine Parlour |
Berkeley Haas | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Thomas Philippon |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Manju Puri |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael R. Roberts |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paola Sapienza |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Amit Seru |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Stambaugh |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Laura Starks |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jeremy Stein |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Johannes Stroebel |
NYU Stern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Sheridan Titman |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
Columbia Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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stable coins may be subject to runs
-see background information here |
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 Toni Whited |
UMich Ross School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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John Campbell |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The future of payments technology is extremely uncertain, and depends on political factors as well as economic considerations.
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John Cochrane |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, much is regulatory arbitrage not better technology. Currently stable coin regulation does not allow the payment of interest. If rates rise at all, electronic money will have to pay. Privacy vs. law enforcement the other big unknown.
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Francesca Cornelli |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Douglas Diamond |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wenxin Du |
HBS | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stablecoins could account for a large share of remittances and business payments to and from emerging markets. Most other payments will probably still be made with bank deposits. There is a lot of uncertainty around these outcomes.
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Janice Eberly |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eugene Fama |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Gabaix |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Itay Goldstein |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Graham |
Duke Fuqua | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Campbell R. Harvey |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But users should get yield. Tether had double the profit of BLK last year. Tether per employee profit was $85m. We will see alternatives to stablecoins such as tokenized bonds that pay yield. Also, I expect governments to issue stablecoins (why not? they are technically not CBDC)
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Harrison Hong |
Columbia | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Wei Jiang |
Emory Goizueta | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Could be the case that in countries with unstable economies, stable coins could make it easier to "dollarize".
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Ralph Koijen |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Camelia Kuhnen |
UNC Kenan-Flagler | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Andrew Lo |
MIT Sloan | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michelle Lowry |
Drexel LeBow | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sydney Ludvigson |
NYU | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Matteo Maggiori |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Much will depend on whether public institutions will step up to provide a basic infrastructure that will obviate the need for stable coins,
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Gregor Matvos |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Tobias Moskowitz |
Yale School of Management | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stefan Nagel |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In parts of the world, this will likely be an attractive means of payment relative to other options.
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Jonathan Parker |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is a huge amount of regulatory uncertainty over the treatment of traditional financial institutions like regulated stablecoins, and a huge amount of legal uncertainty over how they will be allowed to evolve.
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Christine Parlour |
Berkeley Haas | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thomas Philippon |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Manju Puri |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael R. Roberts |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paola Sapienza |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Amit Seru |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Stambaugh |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The pace of technology (e.g., quantum) and the inherent challenges seem hard to predict.
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Laura Starks |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jeremy Stein |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Johannes Stroebel |
NYU Stern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Sheridan Titman |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
Columbia Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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this is a distinct possibility, but will require a legal framework and substantial coordination, as well as adoption throughout the financial sector.
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Toni Whited |
UMich Ross School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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