Yuriy Gorodnichenko image

Yuriy Gorodnichenko

29 Votes

Berkeley

  • Berkeley, CA

About

  • Quantedge Presidential Professor of Economics
  • Sloan Research Fellowship (2013)
  • National Science Foundation, reviewer (2010-2019)

Voting History

Question A: The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Strongly Agree
8
Question B: On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
6
Question C: Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
7
Question A: Current enforcement of competition policy in Europe is not working to promote innovation and growth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
5
Question B: European Union bureaucracy and regulations are a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
6
Question C: The conduct of the dominant US tech companies in European markets (including lobbying and acquisition of start-ups and competitors) is a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
5
Question A: In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, the average public company generates more benefits than costs in terms of profits.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
5
Question B: In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, public companies would benefit from a measurably lower cost of capital.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
5
Question C: There are substantial social benefits when managers of public companies make choices that account for the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members beyond the effects on shareholders.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
6
Europe

Regulating AI

Question A: US antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are warranted by the need to foster competition and innovation in the technologies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Question B: Seeking to slow the pace of artificial intelligence use and implementation would be a more effective means of assessing potential harms from the technologies than market deployment and ex post assessment.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
4
Question A: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Question B: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
5
Question C: Unless the EU matches the proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs, there would be measurably lower employment in Europe's automotive industry over the next five years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Question A: Greater integration of national markets for financial services, energy and telecommunications would give a measurable boost to Europe’s GDP over the next ten years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
7
Question B: The potential benefits for GDP from loosening European merger rules to allow greater consolidation within the single market would outweigh the potential harm to consumers from weaker competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
6
Europe

Capital Markets Union

Question A:

Creation of a more unified capital market in Europe - with a common pool of capital, a single rule book and a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission – would lead to a substantial shift in the balance of companies listing their shares in the EU vis-a-vis the US.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
6
Question B: Creation of a more unified capital market in Europe - with a common pool of capital, a single rule book and a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission – would substantially increase the availability of funding for start-ups and growing companies across the EU.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
6
Question A: The European Union's AI Act was approved by the European Parliament in March 2024: https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/the-act/

The EU's legislation to regulate artificial intelligence is likely to put European technology firms at a substantial disadvantage to their competitors elsewhere in the world.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
5
Question B: By providing a clear set of rules, the EU's legislation on artificial intelligence is likely to enhance research and innovation by firms building the new technology.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
4
Question A: Europe’s economic growth performance over the last 25 years has been measurably better than it would have been in the absence of the single currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question B: With euro area member states having given up their ability to carry out independent monetary policy, it is substantially more difficult for them to respond effectively to country-specific macroeconomic disturbances.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
8
Europe

Drug Policy

A legalized and carefully regulated market for cannabis would lead to measurably higher social welfare than a system of prohibition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Question A: The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Uncertain
5
Question B: In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
7
Europe

Germany’s Debt Brake

Question A: A constitutional rule that limits the size of budget deficits that governments can run as a share of GDP is an effective way to impose discipline on a country’s public finances.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
9
Uncertain
7
Question B: Germany’s debt brake is a substantial constraint on vital public investment in physical/digital infrastructure and the green transition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Europe

Argentina

Question A:

The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Question B: Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Uncertain
7
Europe

Public Corporations

Question A: It is best for society if the management of publicly traded corporations only considers the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members to the extent that these effects feedback to affect shareholder wealth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
6
Question B: The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Question A: By enabling women’s life choices about education, work and family, the contraceptive pill made a substantial contribution to closing gender gaps in the labor market for professionals.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Question B: Gender gaps in today’s labor market arise less from differences in educational and occupational choices than from the differential career impact of parenthood and social norms around men's and women’s roles in childrearing.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Question C: The gender gap in pay would be substantially reduced if firms had fewer incentives to offer disproportionate rewards to individuals who work long and/or inflexible hours.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Agree
6
Question A: The EU's taxonomy for sustainable activities - a classification system that defines criteria for economic activities that are aligned with a net zero trajectory by 2050 and the broader environmental goals other than climate - is an effective way to steer greener investment and the energy transition by firms and financial institutions.


Details on the taxonomy are here:
https://finance.ec.europa.eu/sustainable-finance/tools-and-standards/eu-taxonomy-sustainable-activities_en
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
6
Question B: Use of the EU taxonomy for sustainable activities is likely to stifle important innovations, including in green technology.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
5
Question C: On balance, use of the taxonomy in EU directives and regulation is likely to be net beneficial to European citizens.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
6
Europe

Fiscal Rules

Question A: Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
7
Question B: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
7
Question C: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
6
Question A: Non-bank financial intermediaries pose a substantial threat to financial stability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
Question B: Regulating the leverage and liquidity of non-bank financial intermediaries would substantially improve financial stability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Question C: Given current regulations, non-bank financial intermediaries should not have access to central bank support.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
6
Europe

Greedflation

Question A: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in Europe is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Question B: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question C: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy (both competitive and concentrated) is distortions in the aggregate economy where supply does not meet demand.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question A: If countries could impose a ban on the use of ChatGPT and similar generative AI chatbot services that is technologically effective, they would experience a measurably negative impact on national innovation.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Agree
6
Question B: Regardless of whether advances in AI spur productivity growth, they are likely to create deep challenges for society – in areas from labor markets to politics, and including disinformation, privacy, crime, and warfare – that will be difficult to anticipate, plan for, and contain.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
2
Agree
6
Question A: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
Question B: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
5
Question A: Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by raising contributions while working.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question B: Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by reducing benefits once retired.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Europe

Banking Crisis

Question A: Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Uncertain
7
Question B: Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
7
Question C: Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
8
Europe

Windsor Framework

Question A: The amendments to the Northern Ireland protocol agreed by the UK and the EU are unlikely to have a measurable direct impact on UK growth over the next two years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Disagree
5
Question B: If renewed UK-EU scientific cooperation were achieved in the wake of the Windsor framework, it would be likely to have a measurable positive impact on UK growth over the next five years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Disagree
6
Europe

The Invisible Hand

Question A: Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been foundational to the development of modern economic theory.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
8
Question B: Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been commonly misinterpreted as advocacy for pure laissez-faire capitalism.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Agree
8
Europe

State Aid

Question A: Loosening regulations on state aid to allow targeted incentives for companies in certain sectors will substantially improve the EU’s relative attractiveness for corporate investment.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
5
Question B: Loosening regulations on state aid will give a substantial advantage to the economies of EU members with stronger public finances.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
5
Question C: Even if looser regulations on state aid are temporary, they risk permanent damage to the EU’s longstanding competition policy regime.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Europe

Electric Vehicles

Question A: Without government intervention, take-up of electric vehicles will be substantially less than is desirable to reduce carbon emissions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
3
Agree
6
Question B: To encourage greater take-up of electric vehicles, public expenditure on infrastructure to support them (such as charging stations) is likely to be more cost-effective than providing equivalent amounts as tax credits/purchase rebates for buyers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Europe

Twitter

Question A: Network externalities give Twitter an incumbent advantage that will slow substantially the migration of users who would prefer alternative platforms.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Question B: As of now, there needs to be more government regulation around Twitter’s content moderation and personal data protection.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
5
Question A: The carbon border adjustment mechanism will ensure that the European Union’s green objectives are not undermined by the relocation of EU production in the sectors under the mechanism to non-EU countries with less ambitious climate policies (‘carbon leakage').
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Agree
6
Question B: To the extent that the carbon border adjustment mechanism is effective in reducing emissions and carbon leakage, it will impose substantial costs on the economies of poorer countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
5
Question A: Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit the occurrence of financial crises and the economic damage they cause.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
8
Question B: Despite repeated reforms of financial regulation (and macroprudential policies in some countries), there will always be occasional financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
8
Europe

Bankers’ Bonus Cap

Question A: The UK’s removal of the cap on bankers' bonuses (introduced by the EU in 2014 and which limits payouts to two times annual base salary) will provide a measurable boost to the country’s economic growth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
7
Question B: Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will measurably enhance the global competitiveness of the UK’s financial services sector.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Question C: Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will pose a measurable risk to financial stability in the UK.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Disagree
6
Europe

Oil Price Cap

Question A: A price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries on purchases of Russian oil and oil-related products (and which applies to all importers of Russian oil using Western trade infrastructure, shipping, and insurance) would be an effective measure to reduce the flow of revenues to Russia.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Question B: The oil price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries will not have a substantial effect on the world oil price (such as the Brent crude benchmark).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Uncertain
5