This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.
This Finance survey examines (a) The AI-led boom in investment and growth has substantially increased the exposure of the economy and the stock market to a single concentrated source of tail risk; (b) The use of financing from technology suppliers such as Nvidia to support investments in AI infrastructure substantially increases the financial risks associated with the AI-led boom
This US survey examines (a) Government restrictions on insurance premiums are preventing insurance prices from fully reflecting the increasing physical risks associated with climate change; (b) By preventing climate-related risks from being fully reflected in insurance prices, government interventions are encouraging economic activity in areas that are increasingly exposed to extreme weather
This US survey examines (a) Economic insecurity is a more important driver of the recent rise of populist movements than voters’ concerns about national culture and identity; (b) Populist movements that achieve electoral success lead to a substantial slowdown in economic growth; (c) Some degree of potentially growth-constraining policies on trade, investment and/or migration is necessary to limit the further rise of populist movements
This European survey examines (a) Economic insecurity is a more important driver of the recent rise of populist movements than voters’ concerns about national culture and identity; (b) Populist movements that achieve electoral success lead to a substantial slowdown in economic growth; (c) Some degree of potentially growth-constraining policies on trade, investment and/or migration is necessary to limit the further rise of populist movements in Europe
Shifting the burden of municipal property taxes towards land and away from improvements such as buildings – as proposed in the Detroit land value tax plan – will enhance the incentives for owners to develop their land and thereby give a substantial boost to local economic growth over a ten-year horizon.
This Finance survey examines (a) Deteriorating fiscal outlooks have contributed substantially to the recent rise in long-term government bond yields across advanced economies; (b) A substantial portion of the increase in yields is caused by the increased supply of government bonds, even after controlling for inflation and sovereign default risk
This US survey examines (a) Defense procurement that invites potential suppliers to propose technologies with potential military benefits rather than requiring them to meet tightly specified government requirements would generate substantially stronger military capabilities; (b) Defense procurement that enables start-up firms and other new entrants to participate (either as sole contractors or jointly with others, including incumbents) would generate substantially more innovation in military capabilities than directing spending predominantly towards incumbent contractors
This US survey examines: Mayor Mamdani has announced that a core basket of everyday groceries will be 30% cheaper at five new municipal grocery stores:
https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2026/07/mayor-mamdani-unveils-30–discount—including-all-produce–all-; a) The profits on groceries that the city-owned grocery stores would forgo are sufficiently small that the vast majority of the 30% discount would be provided by tax-funded subsidies; (b) A food assistance program along the lines of SNAP, with a potentially higher income cutoff, would provide direct support to low- and moderate-income city residents more effectively and with lower administrative costs than the proposed city-owned grocery stores
This European survey examines (a) Defense procurement that invites potential suppliers to propose technologies with potential military benefits rather than requiring them to meet tightly specified government requirements would generate substantially stronger military capabilities; (b) Defense procurement that enables start-up firms and other new entrants to participate (either as sole contractors or jointly with others, including incumbents) would generate substantially more innovation in military capabilities than directing spending predominantly towards incumbent contractors
This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the unemployment rates in advanced countries; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a negative impact on the earnings potential of substantial numbers of high-skilled workers in advanced countries; (c) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to substantially greater uncertainty about the likely returns to investment in education
This European survey examines (a) Over the past 25 years, the income of the median European citizen has declined substantially relative to the income of the median American citizen; (b) The living standards of the median European are not substantially lower than those of the median American
This US survey examines: (a) Capping annual rent increases by corporate landlords at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would make middle-income Americans substantially better off over the next ten years; (b) Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments for rent over the next ten years; (c) Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce US income inequality over the next ten years
This week’s European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) A wealth tax would be an effective way to reduce inequality.
B) A wealth tax in a form discussed in the UK (where individuals could be taxed a percentage of their net worth over £750,000, excluding any personal pension savings and their main home) would be an effective way to improve public finances after the Covid-19 crisis.
C) A public policy goal that could be accomplished with a well-enforced wealth tax could be accomplished at lower cost with modifications to existing taxes, such as income tax, capital gains tax, inheritance tax and property tax.
‘Modern monetary theory’ (MMT) – the idea that a country that is able to borrow in its own currency need not worry about government deficits and debt – has been all over the economics and finance media in recent weeks. This approach to macroeconomics, which has been used to underpin calls for new public spending programs, has been debated widely in newspaper columns, blog posts and tweets – often in quite vitriolic ways.
This US survey examines: Adoption of artificial intelligence will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the next ten years
In January this year, Senator Elizabeth Warren unveiled a proposal to tax the wealth of the richest 0.1% of Americans. The proposed legislation to tax households with a net worth of $50 million or more draws on analysis by one of our US panel of economic experts – Emmanuel Saez at Berkeley – showing that the richest 0.1% has seen its share of American wealth more than triple from 7% to 22% since the late 1970s. Saez and colleagues have also made calculations of the potential impact of Senator Warren’s proposed tax.
This US survey examines (a) Ten years after the Brexit referendum, the UK has experienced substantially lower growth than it would have done had it remained in the European Union; (b) The UK would be substantially richer ten years from now if it immediately began negotiations and domestic preparations with the aim of fully rejoining the European Union
