Question A:
Freezing the rents paid by tenants of all rent-stabilized apartments in New York for four years would substantially improve the availability of affordable housing for low- and middle-income households.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Freezing the rents paid by tenants of all rent-stabilized apartments in New York for four years would be a substantial deterrent to private housing investment in the city.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Loosening land-use regulations and other regulation-related constraints on construction in New York (with no rent freeze) would be a substantial boost to private housing investment in the city over the next ten years.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It will benefit those in apartments in the short run, but will reduce the supply of apartments by reducing mobility, reduce construction, and encouraging conversions to condominiums.
-see background information here |
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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not in the long-run
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It *may* have benefits for incumbent renters but hard to see how it could improve "availability"
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rent controls restrict the supply of new housing and reduce the likelihood that currently occupied homes will be efficiently re-allocated. (Rent controls are nice for people that already have housing.)
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Affordability will be increased for sitting tenants, some of whom are middle income. But availability of affordable apartments for anyone seeking housing is likely to decrease.
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The main way to improve the availability of affordable housing for low- and middle-income households is to increase the supply and this will not do that
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Reducing the monetary cost of housing will lead to other ways of rationing the fixed supply of housing and no change in availability of affordable housing.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Freezing rents might help existing tenants, but it would interfere with creating new housing units and with adequately maintaining existing ones
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some tenants will certainty benefit from frozen rents, but the freeze may have adverse effects on supply, even in the relatively short time period of four years.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This would improve affordability for people already in such apartments, worsen affordability for those not in such apartments, worsen the allocation of the apartments to people who need them, and reduce the quality of such apartments due to deferred maintenance
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 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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For the short run, this should work.
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 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Freezing rents would be a windfall benefit for current tenants the lucky new tenants (which will be fewer). It will be harder for prospective tenants to get apartments with the existing stock.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rent stabilization applies to housing built w certain tax subsidies & agreements. So, overall impact on ALL private development not obvious.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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My uncertainty is related to my lack of knowledge about the degree of substitution by developers into new housing units designed for sale, rather than rental.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Investors will fear the expansion of rent control or rent freezes.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think the stabilized rent apartments are largely in a separated market. I'm sure one affects the other but I suspect not very much at least through the middle run.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Especially think about maintenance alone.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is true if Mamdani fulfills his desire to applying rent stabilization to new construction
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends somewhat on whether new units are exempted from controls, but I'm reading "all" as all
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, incentives and supply of rent stabilized units fall. Existing units convert to condos etc. New construction with rent stabilized falls---unless tax incentives are increased. Market rent units may rise as developers shift there. Overall construction likely falls.
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