Question A:
The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Substantially" is not immediate, but the sanctions have certainly made building, maintaining and manning the Russian war machine more difficult.
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 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm sure the sanctions matter. But I don't whether or not the magnitude reaches the "substantial" level.
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is no obvious substantial adverse impact of sanctions on Russia's military capabilities. They have enough funds and materiel for this war. The incentive to bring the war to a stop is increased significantly by sanctions, but that doesn't seem to be enough to stop the war.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am far more uncertain about the efficacy of the sanctions, than I am about the sanctions themselves. The sanctions would be justifiable even if they are primarily symbols of outrage..
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The war is still going on....
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Has strengthen ties and support from non-Western countries
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Imagine what Putin could do if he had free access to energy markets for his oil and natural gas, and freely able to buy weapons and their components? I wish they were more effective but they certainly have put limits on Russian war efforts.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Russia seems to be winning a war of attrition despite sanctions.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sanctions have limited the ability to wage war, but not substantially because of the involvement of other countries, most notably India and China.
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Russia still appears able to bring significant resources to the war, and it is difficult to know what differences we would have seen in the absence of sanctions.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sanctions are damaging the Russian economy but probably not enough to substantially limit Russia's war capacity in the short run.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not much visible evidence for this proposition.
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 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some critical goods are blocked, other sanctions do not stop flows, but raise the cost of trade and commerce , lowering net gains to Russia.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lack of expertise on this issue
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Still true, although the effects of the sanctions have been declining gradually over the last year, as Russia has discovered and cultivated work-arounds that reduce the impact of the sanctions. For example, oil is exported in “ghost” ships with transfers at sea.
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 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Russian gov't revenues have been affected by oil price cap, and sanctions have made it harder to obtain certain parts important for military industrial production. Though it seems they are increasingly finding ways around the latter.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sanctions have a direct effect on Russian economy and a more indirect effect on military capacity. Over time, resilient domestic political power and help from China and others have lessened the impact on military capacity. Yet sanctions likely still have a non zero effect.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Two years of military siege by one of the world's three military superpowers can be tough on an economy
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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From public reporting, Ukraine's economy is substantially dependent on foreign aid. The question refers to the "wartime" economy. Assuming that includes the economic ability to conduct war, the answer is even more clear.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The mismatch in resources between Ukraine and Russia, and the extent of current destruction, implies to me that ending aid would lead to enormous pain and hardship.
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Of course, the Ukrainian economy would collapse without our help. Remember WWII. Even Stalin, Khrushchev and Zhukov admitted that they would not have beaten the Germans without US aid.
-see background information here |
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is difficult to imagine the Ukraine continuing an effective resistance without continued aid.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ukraine is small compared to Russia and therefore needs external aid.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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True. I take “Western” to mean NATO countries plus their allies. Ukraine is much smaller than Russia in terms of both manpower and material resources. Ukraine has a technological edge, and it is the defender while Russia is the aggressor, but fighting a war against Russia alone
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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