Question A:
Adoption of artificial intelligence will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the next ten years.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Adoption of artificial intelligence will lead to a substantial increase in the unemployment rates in the US and Western Europe over the next ten years.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The problem with using AI as currently constituted is that it makes mistakes. This means you have to check the results. For some things this is not too much of a problem but for many it is. If you don't check, it is easy to make embarrassing mistakes.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Certainly seems like a huge innovation, but unclear how large the impact on productivity will be
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 Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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the usual caveat about uncertainty being particularly large in this case. But I put the increase in productivity growth (not necessarily output growth) at 0.5% or more with prob >.5
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The word substantial is key here. I think growth is likely to be higher but by an amount which is not that large.
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Partly because of the capital formation expenditure in the process of building the AI tools. AI output also likely to be important, but partly used to substitute for non-Ai services.
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The adoption of AI may lead to a K-type of income development: Increasing p.c. income for people whose job harmonizes with AI, and decreasing income p.c. for the rest. How this balances out in the aggregate remains to be seen.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The estimates for growth differ widely and much depends on how much TFP growth we get (especially in sectors that are hard to improve).
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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 Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Any estimate on future growth comes with very large confidence bands. Still, the speed of adoption, the impact on individual firm's productivity, and useful models suggest 0.6-1.3 higher productivity growth rate, which is significant
-see background information here |
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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For the reasons given in my previous, I think there is considerable uncertainty about how many people will be displaced. Even if some are, it's not clear this will cause unemployment as other jobs should provide employment instead.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I imagine there will be an impact on labor markets, but whether it will entail more churn, more unemployment or lower labor force participation is unclear to me
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Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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we really do not know, and history is not necessarily a guide this time.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The unemployment impact will depend on the possibility of adequately taxing the increased income of AI enhanced workers to finance the large number of semi-public jobs that are needed and will open up in aging societies
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Considerable restructuring in the labour market likely to increase frictional unemployment over that time horizon.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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AI will lead to more people changing jobs, from admin jobs, say, to service jobs. Unemployment is the most extreme consequence of these changes, but job changes will be the more common one.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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AI can definitely lead to more unemployment in transition phase. However, the long-run effects on unemployment are uncertain & depend on whether AI adoption leads to development of new labor-intensive jobs
-see background information here -see background information here |
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Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am not sure about unemployment but I firmly believe we will see a fall in labor force participation. This trend will accelerate and most likely expand to many iimcome and racial groups
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is little evidence for a negative connection between productivity growth and unemployment in either theory or data. Likewise for automation and unemployment in the long run.
-see background information here |
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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