The Forum for the Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets is home to the European, Finance, and US Economic Experts Panels as well as a repository of thoughtful, current, and reliable information regarding topics of the day.
Forget About the Mandate. Let’s Fix Health Care
On June 28, the Supreme Court upheld President Barack Obama’s health-care law. Opponents and supporters are still sparring over whether its mandate is a tax. It’s time to get over this debate. The mandate’s mild penalty was never this law’s central economic and policy flaw. The legal distinctions among a mandate, a tax, a penalty, […]
Europe
Question A:
Question B:
Question C:
Assuming that Germany eventually agrees to backstop the debt of southern European countries, the eurozone as a whole will be better off if that bailout is unconditional, rather than accompanied by the labor market reforms and future budget controls that Germany is demanding of countries in return.
Responses
If Germany fails to bail out the southern tier of Europe, its own economy will be hurt more — because of output and asset losses — than it would be by an unconditional bailout.
Responses
The main reason other eurozone countries need to worry about Greek banks losing access to ECB support is because the ensuing chaos in Greece could trigger bank runs in peripheral countries.
Responses
Romney Shouldn’t Avoid the Income-Inequality Debate
As he challenges Barack Obama for the presidency, Mitt Romney may be inclined to leave the issue of income inequality to his opponent. That would be a mistake. The reason isn’t just that the country’s widening income gap over the past few decades is an issue any president should address. Romney should also talk about […]
Laffer Curve
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would lead to higher GDP within five years than without the tax cut.
B) A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would raise taxable income enough so that the annual total tax revenue would be higher within five years than without the tax cut.
A) A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would lead to higher GDP within five years than without the tax cut.
B) A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would raise taxable income enough so that the annual total tax revenue would be higher within five years than without the tax cut.
China-US Trade
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Trade with China makes most Americans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.
B) Some Americans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.
A) Trade with China makes most Americans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.
B) Some Americans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.
Are You With the Dumb Money or the Smart Money?
by James Heaton and Nicholas Polson Market observers often divide investors into “smart money” and “dumb money.” Our research shows there may be a way to figure out which group you are in. The first place to look is prices… Read article>
College Tuition
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
An important reason why private college and university tuition has risen faster than the CPI during the past few decades is because competition for faculty members — whose potential earnings in other sectors have steadily improved — has driven up their pay faster than their productivity.
An important reason why private college and university tuition has risen faster than the CPI during the past few decades is because competition for faculty members — whose potential earnings in other sectors have steadily improved — has driven up their pay faster than their productivity.
How Japan Can Avert Nuclear Disaster
By Takeo Hoshi and Anil K Kashyap On May 5, the Tomari nuclear plant in Hokkaido shut down for routine maintenance, leaving Japan with no operating nuclear-power plants. There is a confused debate over what to do next. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has called for restarting the reactors at Ohi plant in Fukui, insisting that […]
Fiscal Cliff
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
If the fiscal changes that are planned under current US law take place next year — including Bush era tax cuts expiring, Medicare payment rates to doctors being cut, the AMT applying to many more taxpayers, and automatic cuts in defense and non-defense discretionary spending kicking in — then US real GDP growth in 2013 will be lower than it would be under the CBO's alternative fiscal scenario, in which the above changes do not occur.
If the fiscal changes that are planned under current US law take place next year — including Bush era tax cuts expiring, Medicare payment rates to doctors being cut, the AMT applying to many more taxpayers, and automatic cuts in defense and non-defense discretionary spending kicking in — then US real GDP growth in 2013 will be lower than it would be under the CBO's alternative fiscal scenario, in which the above changes do not occur.
Stress Tests Don’t Have to Cause a Run on Banks
By Haresh Sapra U.S. and European banking regulators are conducting stress tests to determine whether financial institutions have enough capital to sustain losses as a result of adverse economic conditions. A critical question is whether these results should be made public, and if so, at what level of detail. Read article>
