US

Factory-Made Housing

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, currently before Congress, includes proposed legislation on manufactured housing: https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/whats-in-the-21st-century-road-to-housing-act/

Legislation to remove the federal requirement that manufactured homes be built on a permanent chassis would substantially improve the supply of affordable single-family housing.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Aguiar
Mark Aguiar
Princeton
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
I'm certain that this is a "constructive" step in the right direction. I cannot credibly claim to know the magnitude of the effect; only the sign.
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Bergemann
Dirk Bergemann
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Glaeser
Edward Glaeser
Harvard
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
This is a narrow question, obviously. However, the logic on the permanent chassis requirement seems fairly obvious based on the facts and history. Please see URL associated with my answer.
-see background information here
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Hurst
Erik Hurst
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
This kind of regulation should be done at the state or local level where the local conditions can be considered
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Removing the regulation is almost certainly a good thing. Whether the effect is substantial is harder to say.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
There seems like almost zero downside to this change.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Pathak
Parag Pathak
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Estimates are that eliminating this requirement would reduce the cost of a manufactured home by up to 10k, while eliminating a feature most owners never use. This would be significant for the relevant market.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
The sign is clear, but I am uncertain about "substantially".
Scott Morton
Fiona Scott Morton
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Removing the chassis mandate aims to bypass exclusionary zoning, not just save steel. While this could trigger a massive supply shock, the effect will be muted by high-land-value localities substituting aesthetic rules for mobile-home prohibitions to maintain the status quo.
Stantcheva
Stefanie Stantcheva
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Syverson
Chad Syverson
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Props to Jim Schmitz at the Minneapolis Fed for raising awareness of this issue
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Werning
Ivan Werning
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History