Question A:
Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the UK's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the rest of the EU's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's very difficult to know how the negotiations for trade and immigration will play out. The benefits of being outside the EU are unclear.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It will probably be lower than it would have been, but by how much depends on negotiations with EU and attitudes towards immigrants
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 Richard Baldwin |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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it will disrupt Factory Europe and UK's role in it; to restore UK competitivenes, UK wages must fall relative to those of its EU competittor
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Higher trade costs and poorer access to European markets.
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I do not see the benefits which compensate the loss of full access to the EU market.
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Brexit will reduce trade and immigration because of higher barriers to both. Uncertainty will reduce investment and R&D in the short run
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The tariff-free single market across Europe together with the integration of skilled labour market adds significantly to UK real income.
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Britain will be poorer as a consequence of the exit from the EU but a lot will depend on how the negotiations will go.
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We do not know the terms of the Brexit. There is a possibility but small probability that the negotiated deal amounts to a status quo.
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on the Brexit deal.
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Limiting trade reduces growth, specially when there are no nascent industries that could generate some long term externalities
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It all hinges on the post-Brexit arrangement between the UK and the EU. I wouldn't know how to predict that outcome, it's entirely political
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Theory and empirical studies all say that the UK has benefited from trade and the EU Single Market Program; leaving will reverse this.
-see background information here |
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Period of uncertainty will reduce capital formation. Inward-looking politics will limit benefits of globalization.
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Think of the EU as a collective good with some redistributive features. Strong countries that separate leave tab on the table for remainers.
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 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is some small chance that the EU will malfunction badly in the future, in which case Brexit may be good ex post.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trade barriers and uncertainty are negative. But much will depend on terms of exit and when it will be triggered.
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Definitely a negative impact, though how much depends on how hard is the Brexit and how long the associated uncertainty persists
-see background information here |
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We don't know yet what form Brexit will take. If the UK chooses to stay in the EEA & customs union the economic consequences will be minimal
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Almost all the estimates and forecasts regarding the impact of Brexit on international trade converge on this prediction.
-see background information here |
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The consequences of Brexit depend completely on the exit terms, which we know very little about.
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The UK benefited from access to the EU single market. How much worse off it will be will depend on the access that it will get post-exit
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The IMF, the OECD, the UK Treasury, the IFS, the LSE CEP are unanimous on this, and 90% of UK economists surveyed agree - correctly.
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Extensive work on this by myself, CEP, LSE, NIESR, etc. Trade costs with closest UK trading partner rise so trade & FDI fall. Incomes lower
-see background information here |
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Brexit is v probably (but not certainly) bad for trade and investment. The £ drop reflects this but is an efficient way to be worse off..
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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we know very little about the long-run effects of common market access on service trade, the most important component of UK exports
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tarriffs & non-tarriff barriers with the EU $ the likely re-introduction of state aids and subsidies will have negative supply-side effects.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We do not know yet what will be the outcome of the negotiations. If Brexit occurs and is messed up, then it will hurt the UK.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Expected negative effects on trade and integration, and loss of London as a financial center. Uncertain counterfactual: will there be EU?.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again very difficult to know how things will play out at this stage.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Brexit would largely be bad for Europe in the long run, but some relocation effects could be beneficial in the short/medium run
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Richard Baldwin |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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UK is a only a small part of Factory Europe and political reactions are likely to shield most critical parts.
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The UK is an important trading partner and the UK has also been an effective champion for open markets within the EU.
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, loss of full access to UK market is a minus, although small. Political implications re EU construction can go one way or the other
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The EU has been driving free markets, trade and openess across Europe. Brexit weakens the EU, and this weakens these pro-growth forces.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The UK is a major influence in improving economic policy and a large trading partner. A decline in this will have a negative impact on EU.
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The impact on the EU is likely to be less than that on the UK, except if Brexit is the beginning of a progressive breakup of the EU.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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again there is lot of uncertainty at the moment, so any prediction is difficult, especially in terms of the consequences for the EU
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Brexit is a negative but it could lead the Europeans to adopt better policies in reaction
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The effect on the rest of the EU will be limited.
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lower trade implies lower growth and more inefficiencies. The lack of a political willingness to rebuild Europe is also problematic
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I cannot see the channels through which the rest of the EU would be significantly affected.
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Brexit will reduce the benefit the EU gets from trade with the UK and weaken the EU Single Market Program.
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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UK exit weakens the support for pro-market policies in the EU altering the balance of powers towards more state-oriented policies
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Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Britain's departure weakens EU ties; Brexit negotiations will sap energy and divert attention from other pressing problems.
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As the UK leaves, an advocate of markets and free competition departs - with negative consequences for the rest of the EU.
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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biggest risk is political: Brexit's anti-establishment message spreads. purely economic spillovers likely minor.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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EU larger than UK, so impact likely smaller but same caveat as in first part. Also, EU lost force for more open and flexible markets.
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Europe is more important to the UK than vice versa, so the effect on the rest of the EU should be less severe though still negative
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Same comment as before. But in any event the consequences will be less for the EU 27 taken as a whole.
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Brexit implies GDP losses for the EU not only because of lower trade with the UK but also because of disruption in the finance industry.
-see background information here |
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Brexit can either trigger more exits, or make remaining EU countries pull closer together, so very hard to call the effects.
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The UK is a large market for many EU countries and trade restrictions post-exit will have a cost
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As for previous question, but add European Commission. Open borders, trade and competition are good for innovation and growth.
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A lot will depend on the political dynamics in the EU unleashed by the Brexit vote. More dislocation or more integration?
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The effect of Brexit on the EU is uncertain since it also depends on how it affects the political institutions of the EU going forward.
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Because trade costs will rise with UK's closest neighbours, trade and FDI will fall. This depresses income (see work by CEP, NIESR, PWC, etc
-see background information here |
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trade uncertainty bad for EU too. Necessary EU reforms less likely without UK.
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on how much free market momentum is lost within the EU due to Brexit
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The trade impact on the rest of the EU will be proportionately less than for the UK but this is still a negative.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The UK is not that important for the EU for trade. What matters is that the UK was a reasonable voice among often confused leaders.
-see background information here |
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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UK will suffer more tan the EU in economic terms. UK was no constructive partner in institution building.
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