The pandemic has led to a big shift to working from home among people in occupations where it is possible for the jobs or some part of them to be done remotely. There has been much debate about the extent to which such forms of working (or a hybrid model, with some hours done at home and some on business premises) will continue over the longer term. Key questions include the potential impact on employees’ productivity and their job satisfaction, and whether the career trajectories of women and men may be affected differently by a substantial increase in working from home.
In November 2021, we invited our US and European panels to express their views on these issues. We asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:
Not all occupations can be done even in part from home. For those that can:
a) Employees who spend two of their days each week working from home are, on average, likely to be more productive over the longer term.
b) Employees who spend two of their days each week working from home are, on average, likely to report higher levels of job satisfaction over the longer term.
c) Having the opportunity to work two to three days a week from home is, on average, likely to be more beneficial for women’s career progression than for that of their male colleagues.
Of our 43 US experts, 41 participated in this survey; of our 48 European experts, 41 participated – for a total of 82 expert reactions.
The impact of working from home on productivity
On the first statement about whether employees spending two of their days each week working from home are, on average, likely to be more productive over the longer term, a majority of panelists say that they are uncertain. Weighted by each expert’s confidence in their response, 5% of the panels strongly agree, 27% agree, 56% are uncertain, 12% disagree, and 0% strongly disagree.
The experts are able to include short comments in their responses, and among only two who strongly agree about a positive impact on productivity, one is Nicholas Bloom at Stanford, who has done a considerable amount of research in this area and whose work was cited by several panelists. He comments: ‘A growing body of research, natural experiments and RCTs [randomized controlled trials], finds moderate levels of WFH [working from home] increase employee productivity.’
Among others who agree, Franklin Allen at Imperial College London says: ‘Depends on the person’s level but provided this is sufficiently high, the reduction in time and effort from commuting is likely a benefit.’ Jan Pieter Krahnen at Goethe University Frankfurt states: ‘I think that over the longer term the productivity is more or less the same, as the innovation effect fades out.’ And Ricardo Reis at the London School of Economics (LSE) directs us to some evidence from Italy that the introduction of ‘smart working’ can have a positive effect on productivity, wellbeing and work-life balance.
Among the majority of panelists who say that they are uncertain, several share the view of Judith Chevalier at Yale: ‘I am pretty certain that there is not enough evidence to have a certain opinion.’ Others point out the difficulty of knowing what the average effect will be. Barry Eichengreen at Berkeley remarks: ‘All we know is some employees yes, other employees (where interpersonal contact is important) no. Average is still uncertain.’ And Richard Schmalensee at MIT responds: ‘Surely depends on the nature of the job and the management style of the firm. I’ve seen no evidence on the overall average.’
Several other experts note the importance of the nature of the work and an individual’s particular position. Christopher Pissarides at the LSE observes: ‘It depends on the nature of work and on the ability of the employee to concentrate on work when there are many alternative uses of home time.’ Robert Shimer at Chicago adds: ‘This will be very dependent on the particular position. The claim is more likely to be true for knowledge workers.’ John Van Reenen at the LSE suggests: ‘It will depend on the type of job one is doing. For creative occupations, social interaction is key so unclear if 40% at home will be better.’
Others comment on the impact on organizational interactions. Daron Acemoglu at MIT remarks: ‘We do not yet know long-run consequences on trust, collaboration and coordination in organizations.’ Anil Kashyap at Chicago notes: ‘There are competing forces, organizational capital depends on some in-person contact; can’t tell if three days in office is enough.’ His colleague Christian Leuz adds: ‘Short-run likely positive, but long-run unclear: effect on innovation, information sharing? Likely also depends on job, lots of heterogeneity.’
Among the panelists who disagree about a positive impact of working from home on productivity, Joseph Altonji at Yale suggests: ‘Maybe less productive on average, but it really depends on the job.’ Kenneth Judd at Stanford adds: ‘Most jobs require collaboration. The formal communication channels of email and Zoom lack the value of spontaneous meetings.’ Daniel Sturm at the LSE concurs: ‘Positive productivity spillovers in the office can likely not be fully replaced by Zoom and other measures.’
The impact of working from home on job satisfaction
On the second statement about whether employees who spend two of their days each week working from home are, on average, likely to report higher levels of job satisfaction over the longer term, a majority of panelists say that they agree. Weighted by each expert’s confidence in their response, 9% of the panels strongly agree, 60% agree, 31% are uncertain, and 0% disagree or strongly disagree.
Among those who agree or strongly agree, several point to evidence. David Autor at MIT says: ‘Lots of evidence that people prefer this arrangement. I suspect that in steady state, it will increase satisfaction.’ Nicholas Bloom adds: ‘Attrition rates from WFH jobs in RCTs are about half those of in-person jobs, and survey data shows a preference to WFH two days a week.’ And Christian Leuz notes: ‘Assuming they get to choose, self-selection suggests outcome. WFH in lockdown was mixed. But with choice, people likely value flexibility’, linking to the Bloom and colleagues’ evidence from an experiment in China.
Others express further caveats about choice and selection, as well as the possibility of longer-term regrets among those who prefer home working. Daron Acemoglu mentions: ‘Provided that it is a choice, not imposition.’ Barry Eichengreen adds: ‘Agree, but these may simply be people who work in occupations offering more flexibility and personal control (pattern is driven by selectivity).’ Anil Kashyap says: ‘Though if promotions lag eventually from insufficient organizational investment, they may have regrets.’ And Christopher Pissarides remarks: ‘In the short term yes, less travel, more time to oneself. In the longer term, maybe not if it delays promotion or pay rise.’
Several panelists comment on why job satisfaction might rise from higher levels of working from home. Darrell Duffie at Stanford observes: ‘Depends on their working conditions at home but if these are good then they should be better off.’ Richard Schmalensee agrees: ‘That’s what most seem to want, and it will likely make them happier. And John Van Reenen notes: ‘Will reduce commutes, which are most stressful parts of day for most people.’
Among the panelists who say that they are uncertain, Austan Goolsbee at Chicago asks: ‘Will employers expect them always to be on call?’ His colleague Lubos Pastor adds: ‘Likely to vary with seniority’; and another Chicago colleague Richard Thaler notes: ‘Again, no way to generalize. At Chicago Booth, there was a strong culture to come to the office. That can easily unravel, which would be bad.’
Kenneth Judd agrees: ‘The advantage of less commuting may balance the lower level of social interaction. And Robert Shimer concludes: ‘Again, a lot of heterogeneity. Revealed preference suggests many workers want to work from home, but this will decrease job attachment.’
The impact of working from home on women’s career progression
On the third statement about whether having the opportunity to work two to three days a week from home is, on average, like to be more beneficial for women’s career progression than for that of their male colleagues. Weighted by each expert’s confidence in their response, 1% of the panels strongly agree, 25% agree, 55% are uncertain, 17% disagree, and 2% strongly disagree.
Among those who agree about the positive effect, several comment on the value of job flexibility for women’s careers. Pinelopi Goldberg at Yale says: ‘More flexibility is good for the careers of women, especially when they have young children.’ David Autor notes that: ‘Claudia Goldin has documented that the economic costs of job inflexibility fall at present most heavily on women.’
Several who agree comment on social expectations of women’s role at home. Barry Eichengreen states: ‘Likely to be true insofar as women, for reasons of tradition and gender roles, are still responsible for more household/childcare duties.’ Darrell Duffie notes: ‘Many women have, historically at least, taken relatively greater responsibility for child rearing. This may provide added flexibility.’
Karl Whelan at University College Dublin declares: ‘I wish this wasn’t true – ideally child-minding duties would be shared equally – but in practice this probably is the case.’ Daron Acemoglu adds a caveat: ‘Provided that there are not perverse incentives, where women will be expected to work even harder to signal work-ahead-of-family commitment.’
Among those who say that they are uncertain, Nicholas Bloom states: ‘This might be correct, but I am not aware of robust evidence on this – indeed more research on this would be invaluable.’ And Larry Samuelson at Yale notes: ‘These key questions will play a role in shaping future working conditions and warrant careful study.’
Others explain how the outcome could go either way. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln at Goethe University Frankfurt says: ‘On the positive side, it might increase hours worked for women. On the negative side, they will be less engaged in the office networks.’ Christopher Pissarides replies: ‘Pros: easier to combine office work with home production. Cons: more difficult to escape home production than in an office.’
Daniel Sturm, who is also uncertain, notes: ‘While remote working may well hold back the careers of both women and men equally, women will likely make more use of this option.’ John Van Reenen, who disagrees that working from home will benefit women, explains why that might be a problem: ‘Although good for participation, women may end up being less visible in workplace.’ Robert Shimer adds: Work-from-home likely means child-care-during-work for many people, particularly women.’
Others who disagree link to evidence. Christian Leuz comments: ‘Lots of evidence (e.g., COVID) that traditional gender roles in childcare persist, which can lead to gender differences in WFH that hurt [women’s] career progression.’ And finally, Ricardo Reis points to US evidence on alternative work arrangements.
All comments made by the experts are in the full survey results.
Romesh Vaitilingam
@econromesh
January 2022
Question A:
Employees who spend two of their days each week working from home are, on average, likely to be more productive over the longer term.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Employees who spend two of their days each week working from home are, on average, likely to report higher levels of job satisfaction over the longer term.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Having the opportunity to work two to three days a week from home is, on average, like to be more beneficial for women’s career progression than for that of their male colleagues.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
Depends on the person's level but provided this is sufficiently high the reduciton in time and effort from commuting is likely a benefit.
|
||||
Pol Antras |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
I have not seen studies, and introspection is too individual specific
|
||||
Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
A growing body of research, natural experiments and RCTs, finds moderate levels of WFH increase employee productivity.
-see background information here |
||||
Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
there must be a lot of heterogeneity
|
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Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
But depends a lot on the sector.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
I think that OVER THE LONGER TERM the productivity is more or less the same, as the innovation-effect fades out.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Short-run likely positive, but long-run unclear: effect on innovation, info sharing? Likely also depends on job, lots of heterogeneity
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Depends on the nature of their work.
|
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
it depends on the nature of work and on the ability of the employee to concentrate on work when there are many alternative uses of home time
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
Positive productivity spillovers in the office can likely not be fully replaced by Zoom and other measures.
|
||||
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
It will depend on the type of job one is doing. For creative occupations, social interaction is key so unclear if 40% at home will be better
|
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
I don't think we have much evidence to judge this on.
|
||||
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
Evidence is sketchy but tends to back this assertion.
|
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Question B Participant Responses
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
Depends on their working conditions at home but if these are good then they should be better off.
|
||||
Pol Antras |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
i have not seen studies, and introspection is likely to be too individual specific
|
||||
Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Attrition rates from WFH jobs in RCTs are about half those of in person jobs, and survey data shows a preference to WFH 2 days a week
-see background information here |
||||
Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
In terms of job satisfaction, staying at home 2/5 days may be doing wonder...
|
||||
Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Assuming they get to choose, self-selection suggests outcome. WFH in lockdown was mixed. But w/choice, people likely value flexibility
-see background information here |
||||
Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Likely to vary with seniority.
|
||||
Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
in the short term yes, less travel, more time to oneself. In the longer term maybe not if it delays promotion or pay rise
|
||||
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
Will reduce commutes which are most stressful parts of day for most people
|
||||
John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
This certainly seems true. And job satisfaction clearly influences productivity. But so do things like having a well-functioning team.
|
||||
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Question C Participant Responses
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
Not sure about this.
|
||||
Pol Antras |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Oriana Bandiera |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
This might be correct, but I am not aware of robust evidence on this - indeed more research on this would be invaluable.
|
||||
Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
On the positive side, it might increase hours worked for women. On the negative side, they will be less engaged in the office networks.
|
||||
Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
Sorry, no clue on this one...
|
||||
Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Lots evidence (e.g., COVID) that trad gender roles in childcare persist, which can lead to gender diff in WFH that hurt career progression
-see background information here |
||||
Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
Pros: easier to combine office work with home production. Cons: more difficult to escape home production than in an office
|
||||
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
While remote working may well hold back the careers of both women and men equally, women will likely make more use of this option.
|
||||
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
Although good for participation, women may end up being less visible in workplace
-see background information here |
||||
John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
I wish this wasn't true -- ideally child-minding duties would be shared equally -- but in practice this probably is the case.
|
||||
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
I haven't seen any evidence for or against.
|
||||
Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|