A typical country can increase its citizens’ welfare by enacting policies that would increase its trade surplus (or decrease its trade deficit).
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Consumption and investment smoothing is good. But often CA deficits support consumption booms that are unsustainable.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Perhaps in the very short run, but not in equilibrium.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
There is no reason to think the relation is causal
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Depends on circumstances. To return to steady state, export growth model worked well for China, Asian Tigers and Germany after WW II.
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
There is no conceptual or empirical support for this. It depends on dynamics and discount rates.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Focusing on trade is basically mercantilism. I take a global perspective, where trade always nets to zero, so this focus is meaningless.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
A trade surplus means a country is saving, a trade deficit that it is dis-saving. As with people each can make sense at different times.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Depends on circustances. For small open economies and emerging economies an essential element of policy.
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
1st principles: neither surplus nor deficit necessarily welfare-enhance. SOME welfare-enhancing policies would raise surplus, however.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The best way to increase welfare is to engage in good policies, not go after some mercantilist ideal.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
crazy assertion but plenty of people seem to believe this. to see the fallacy, note that banning imports would do it and would crush welfare
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Mercantilism!
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
In some cases, yes, for at least some citizens.
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Trade surplus is symptom, not measure of welfare.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
A surplus is often taken to indicate a healthy economy, but it is not obvious how producing more than it consume makes a country better off.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Seems like the right answer to this question is: it depends.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
There may be policies that reduce trade deficits and increase welfare, but most policies *designed* to reduce deficits will reduce welfare.
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