US

TikTok

Question A:

If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably negative impact on US innovation.

Responses

© 2024. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
15%
7%
2%
46%
22%
7%
0%

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

© 2024. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
6%
63%
28%
3%
0%

Question B:

If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably positive impact on the profits of the big US tech companies.

Responses

© 2024. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
15%
5%
0%
17%
17%
46%
0%

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

© 2024. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
21%
25%
54%
0%

Question A Participant Responses

Participant
University
Vote
Confidence
Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
We should always be careful in blocking new technologies, hence my answer is "uncertain". But it is not clear what major (positive) innovation spillovers from TikTok are, and social media will have to be regulated. Regulations that also apply to US platforms would be better.
-see background information here
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Tik Tok is a significant social-media innovation. So, I agree. It may be appropriate to ban it on other grounds, like the potential for foreign monitoring of users.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Not everything people use is good for them nor for society. Much social media is addictive, distracting, and lowers attention spans.
-see background information here
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Could go the other way if triggers a race to come up with the successor and maybe this will prove to be a blip anyway.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
It would have geopolitical consequences, might chill certain types of investment, and would raise concerns about the government targeting individual companies. But US innovation is a broad category to measurably impact.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
I don't know how much TikTok currently contributes to innovation.
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Competitors or new innovations are likely to fill the void.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
I've seen nothing to suggest a measurable effect.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Competition can enhance or retard innovation
Stock
James Stock
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant
University
Vote
Confidence
Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Yes, unless they are also regulated and this is one reason why regulations that apply to all social media companies are better than just blocking TikTok.
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
I'm uncertain because I don't know which big-tech firms that provide or would develop popular substitutes.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
You have to also make an assumption about whether and how China might retaliate, that could swamp the direct effect of reducing competition.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
It would eliminate a big competitor in social media
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
TikTok seems to be taking quite a bit of business away from U.S. social media. A ban would give the American companies a chance to catch up.
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Some (e.g., Facebook) might be affected, but others (e.g., Apple) would clearly not be. "The big US tech companies" differ in many ways.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History