US

The CBO

Question A:

Forecasting the effects of complex legislative actions is hard, so even competent, non-ideological and non-partisan projections could differ substantially from outcomes.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Adjusting for legal restrictions on what the CBO can assume about future legislation and events, the CBO has historically issued credible forecasts of the effects of both Democratic and Republican legislative proposals.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." --Nils Bohr
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Duh
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The world is uncertain and even the most careful, conscientious, and skilled people may fail to anticipate some important factors.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
My only hesitation is I would say strongly agree if the word substantially was deleted from the sentence.
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The job is made more difficult by the unwillingness of economists to use modern tools of analysis.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
disclosure, i was an unpaid cbo advisor for many years. part of the reason to serve is to help, but the job is very challenging.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
CBO has a good track record with a very difficult assignment. It errs, but not systematically or with partisan intent.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
I am interpreting "credible" to mean "unbiased and informative."
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
if you choose the cbo director and then say cbo is unfair, you're either an idealogue or a bad comedian
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The CBO is a serious and reputable agency. I would put a lot of weight on its forecasts, even knowing that some will inevitably be wrong.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
I have not followed the CBO sufficiently to pass a judgment
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
This is my belief. Unfortunately economists do not believe in serious retrospective analysis of past forecasts.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
It is hard to adjust for those legal restrictions.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
the clause is important, they are restricted to use current law to project, even when that is going to create errors. see disclosure
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
There is no credible evidence of partisan bias.