US

Ten-Year Budgets

Question A:

Because federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid will continue to grow under current policy beyond the 10-year window of most political budget debates, it is easy for a politician to devise a budget plan that would reduce federal deficits over the next decade without really making the U.S. fiscally sustainable.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Comparing two plans that would reduce federal budget deficits by identical amounts in each of the next 10 years, one that did so partly by reducing significantly the long-term growth rate of Medicare and Medicaid spending would do more to make the U.S. budget fiscally sustainable than one that did not lower the growth of these spending programs.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
"Easy" is too strong, but the growth rate of medical costs and adverse demographic trends pose long term problems
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
With or w/o Medicare, it's hard to do a budget that fixes federal deficits over 10 yrs. But ignoring Med makes it easier than it should be!
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
It might be easy for technocrats to devise a plan, but it seems very difficult to get politicians to do so.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nothing is easy about deficit reduction.
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
you think a significant 10 yr deficit cut would be 'easy'? welcome to earth, friend.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Disagree w word "easy" but agree that the budget problem for the next 10 years differs from the one over longer terms.
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Health spending spending will rise a lot in 10 years, so a plan that limited the deficit for that period of time would be a good step
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Easier, yes, but CBO says even eliminating deficits over ten years means noticeable spending cuts and/or tax increases.
-see background information here
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Controlling US health care costs is necessary (and not only for fiscal sustainability). But other fiscal issues also need addressing.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
arithmetic
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
"Easy" might not be the right word.
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Alternative could be as sound if it reduced growth rate of Social Security (e.g. by means testing) and reduced inefficient tax deductions.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Rising health care costs are the greatest threat to U.S. fiscal solvency (that we know of) looking over multiple decades.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Health care costs are driving the growth in the deficit.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
An important caveat though: It can be difficult to know today, what will lower long term growth more than 10 years out.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Depends what the alternative is.
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
if it meant the lower growth rate would continue, then yes, clearly
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
True but more revenues need to be part of solution. We are collecting low levels of revenue by historical stds and population is aging.
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Rationalizing Medicare and bringing contributions for higher-income families into line with benefits would be a good idea on its own.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Medicare and Medicaid are (along with growth) the key factors for long term sustainability. We never paid for the Bush plan, let alone ACA.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Hard to disagree, but question seems too hypothetical - fiscal situation also would look better with 5%/ yr GDP growth!
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
ditto. Real issue should be to abolish the 10 year window and especially misleading attempts to disguise things via "temporary" tax cuts.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History