Inequality, Populism, and Redistribution

Question A:

Rising inequality is straining the health of liberal democracy.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Enacting more redistributive expenditures and policies would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question C:

European governments should allocate more resources to policies that would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe, even if it means higher public debt or lower public spending in other areas.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Based on my reading of the research, not the only reason, but, in most countries, the main one.
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Rising inequality is leading voters to search for desperate solutions - Trump and Brexit are the most obvious - damaging long run properity.
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
There is not only one inequality to consider. Labour earnings inequality has been rising everywhere, especially for men. This maybe key.
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
True where there is a rise in inequality. Inequalities are not the only, neither always the main source of pressure on liberal democracies.
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
It is not so much inequality per se, but the economic insecurity faced by people in western countries
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Not inequality per se undermines democracy, but the degree to which being rich or poor becomes hereditary.
Krusell
Per Krusell
Stockholm University
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Feels that way @moment. Theories to support; evidence less clear. Also argument: greater econ. inequality -> greater political inequality
-see background information here
-see background information here
-see background information here
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Rising inequality is a contributing factor; but real or imagined threats from immigration are more salient in Europe. Populists exploit both
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The median voter becomes increasingly frustrated. The enclosed paper shows theoretically how rising inequality boosts populism.
-see background information here
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The idea of liberal democracy is that there is sharing in the rewards from growth.
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Populist parties/ extreme right, left exploit anger and resentment (Brexit, Trump, Liga, etc...). Lobbies/large donations pervert democracy.
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Inequality & stagnation of median pay more of an influence; e.g. Brexit
-see background information here
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
The health of liberal democracy is under strain not only in countries where inequality has risen
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
But income inequality is only one of the issues and in many countries not the main one. In many regional inequality is more important.
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
More a political science question than an economics one. Stagnant median earnings perhaps a greater issue than inequality per se.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
It's one factor, among several.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Reducing inequality is critical for battling populism - otherwise desperate voters will turn to racist populists
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The UK & France redistribute quite a bit. This has not stemmed populism much. It may be the position of the low skill in the labour market.
-see background information here
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
No general answer. Depends on the country. Sometimes better schooling or better targeted transfers rather than more transfers is required.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Unemployment, immigration and the design of the European project are as important causes of populism in Europe. Redistribution is not all.
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Populism is spread out in many EU countries that already distribute a lot
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Populism - as today's new nationalism - is driven by doubts about future living standard and way of life, rather than inequality at home.
Krusell
Per Krusell
Stockholm University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
If link in A) is true & policies successful in limiting inequality, then agree. But evidence for link in A) is tenuous.
-see background information here
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Announcement effects of such policies could have short-term benefits; but the direct effects will only be long-term
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
But not all kinds of redistribution work, and redistribution alone is not enough. Many peoples’ concerns are non-economic.
-see background information here
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Populism does not necessarily have a common cause across European countries, but in some countries redistribution might help
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Only proviso is that they are done in a way that targets mainly poverty - e.g., as in the Nordics
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Details matter a lot. Political process, education also need reforms.
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Causes of the rise of populism do not seem well enough understood
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Redistribution is already very high and it does not seem ti mollify people much
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Europe already does plenty of redistribution. And some populist parties (Brexit\Lega) actually have anti-redistribution policy platforms.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Much is done in France and yet we had the Yellow Vests.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History

Question C Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
This fits with my view that, in many countries, a more accommodating fiscal policy is needed on other grounds at this juncture
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Voting for populists is the way voters left out from growth punish the economy - they vote crazies like Trump - so we need to buy them off.
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Agree
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Redistribution between living generations should not be financed by debt.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Agree (even though vague statement and fighting populism is not only a money issue) because populism is a very important threat.
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
They should adopt policies to fight populism, but expansionary fiscal policies are not the medicine.
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Agree
Bio/Vote History
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fighting populism-nationalism needs bold decisions promoting a sense of relevance and pride for European politics. That is no spending issue
Krusell
Per Krusell
Stockholm University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
While limiting extreme populism likely good, focus should be on inequality& its neg effects. Populism can be exercise of democratic rights.
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Retreating from austerity in UK, or boosting Eurozone aggregate demand, plus efforts to reduce inequality should help, if sold positively
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
It very much depends on the fiscal space of the country being considered: e.g., a positive reply is more suited to Germany than to Italy.
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Other approaches, such as giving more protection for communal experiences of Europeans and their communities, could achieve more than money.
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Same qualifier as previous question
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Populism is the biggest risk to European unity
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Depends on policy. Scrapping carbon tax to please Gilets Jaunes not a good policy.
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
While some policies that might curb the rise of populism in Europe have merit, some others plainly do not
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Unclear to me which areas of spending would do this. Better to evaluate spending proposals on their objective merits.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
This could and should be done without increasing deficits.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History