The annual indexing of Social Security benefits to increases in the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (the CPI-W) leads to higher benefits than would be required to compensate recipients for genuine cost-of-living increases.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
13%
5%
3%
5%
37%
32%
5%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
7%
30%
46%
11%
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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CPI-W probably overstates inflation for the general population, but may understate it for the elderly health costs are for this group.
-see background information here |
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not certain that inflation faced by elderly corresponds perfectly to inflation faced by urban wage earners and clerical workers.
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is both an upward and downward bias in CPI-w. Chaining and capturing elderly consumption would be an improvement
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't recall the latest research on this.
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Neither the curret CPI or an indexed version of it has weights appropriate for the Social Security population, so the claim has no basis.
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am not aware of the evidence.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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not to get too deep into price index theory but suffice it to say that this is definitely true
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The NIPA PCE index, taken by many to be more accurate, turns out to underweight housing, so it's hard to tell.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The chained CPI C-CPI-U gets conditional COLI approx right because it allows bundle of goods to adjust. CPI-W is an upper bound on COLI.
-see background information here |
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Is the urban rate of inflation is greater than elsewhere? "Urban" covers 87% of the population; see website below.
-see background information here |
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Directionally almost has to be true, but the magnitude is uncertain.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Poorly conceived question. CPI-W overstates cost of living for all, but not clear for 65+. Two effects seem close to offsetting.
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Most agree that the CPI over-states inflation, but it is less clear that the over-statement is substantial.
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to say without knowing about healthcare costs.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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