Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation

Strong competition from foreign producers is likely to encourage greater private sector expenditure on research and development in the home market.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
13%
2%
0%
0%
43%
24%
17%

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
46%
26%
29%
Participant
University
Vote
Confidence
Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Difficult question where the answer depends significantly on the particular circumstances being considered.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
This is neither clear theoretically (scale effects versus escape competition effects) nor empirically (see Autor et al. versus Bloom et al.)
-see background information here
-see background information here
Bandiera
Oriana Bandiera
London School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Trade and competition is a long established driver of innovation. Autarkies - like North Korea - have little innovation.
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
It depends on the capabilities of firms in the home market; if they are too far behind the frontier they won't be able to compete
-see background information here
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
Sciences Po
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
The relationship between competition and innovation is non-linear
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Evidence in both directions, differing for Europe & US. Difference could depend on domestic comp or labor markets (e.g., trapped factors)
-see background information here
-see background information here
-see background information here
-see background information here
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
My understanding of the literature both in theory and empirics is that this relationship is ambiguous.
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
R&D will increase the quality of the product or lower its costs and comparative advantage will be restored
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Depends on the nature of the industry (monopoly, network effects...).
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Bell labs? I think there is little reason to expect something really systematic here
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History