US

Fed Policy

Question A:

Enactment of the Senate bill to subject the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and discount window decisions to an audit by the Comptroller General of the U.S. would improve the Fed's legitimacy without hurting its decision making.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

The Fed should not reduce its purchases of mortgage-backed securities and treasurys until there is clearer evidence of strong and sustained employment growth.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
The bill will reduce the policy independence of the Fed.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
It is important for the Fed to be able to operate with a minimum of political interference.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
This depends on whether the audit is used to reduce the discretion of the Fed when acting within its mandate. I would need some specifics.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Um, have you seen how it has worked in countries with political oversight of monetary policy decisions?
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
The existing system of an independent Fed acting with finality has worked well. There's nothing to be gained from such an audit.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
This looks like an attempt at facilitating more political interference with Fed policy.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
The point of this bill is to dial back central independence. Abundant evidence suggests worse monetary policy will follow if it is enacted.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
This could work in principle, but generally more Central Bank independence has led to better decisions.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Don't know enough about the bill to have a particularly strong view.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Hard to see any effect on its legitimacy or effectiveness.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Central bank independence is important.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
It seems like a dangerous reduction in fed autonomy.

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Quantitative easing has had to substitute for fiscal stimulus in this recovery, so it should not be ended while it is still needed.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Judging when the marginal cost of "exit" risks exceeds the marginal stimulative benefits is difficult with only the data available to me.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
The economy isn't strong yet.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
5 years of growth at 2%, unemployment around or above 7.5% and core inflation well below the target says DO NOT TIGHTEN.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Risk w Fed's strategy but we are far below potential output Effect on int rates of tapering culd be large, see May-June int rate increase
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
The Fed has responsibility for controlling inflation. Though quite unlikely, the Fed might need to contract if inflation surged.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Benefits of more QE now seems small. QE won't cause inflation, but the forward guidance cum QE is creating some financial stability risk.
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
But I am worried about it may be coming at the cost of misallocation.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Caveat: how big an effect these purchases are actually having on employment is not that clear to me.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
I interpret this as saying that should continue until are on trajectory that would lead to high employment in 2-3 years.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The question is somewhat vague: clearer than what? Consistency in policy is important, so continuing is probably useful.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History