US

Experimental Research, Development Economics and Poverty Reduction

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Question A:

Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for answering some long unsettled questions in development economics research.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
0%
0%
0%
0%
30%
63%
Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
0%
31%
69%
Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for making significant progress in poverty reduction.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
0%
2%
0%
12%
49%
30%
Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
4%
0%
6%
50%
41%
Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Download Poll Data

Question A Participant Responses

Participant
University
Vote
Confidence
Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu 		MIT
Agree
6
 Bio/Vote History
RCTs like all other tools are of course useful. Each has limitations. For RCTs challenges are scalability, GE and political economy effects.
-see background information here
Alesina
Alberto Alesina 		Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji 		Yale
Strongly Agree
9
 Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach 		Berkeley
Strongly Agree
7
 Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor 		MIT
Strongly Agree
10
 Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker 		University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
3
 Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee 		MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand 		Chicago
Strongly Agree
5
 Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier 		Princeton
Agree
5
 Bio/Vote History
It should be one tool out of many useful tools. E.g. China’s large poverty reduction was mostly due to industrial policy.
Chetty
Raj Chetty 		Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier 		Yale
Strongly Agree
6
 Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler 		Harvard
Strongly Agree
4
 Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton 		Princeton
Agree
7
 Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie 		Stanford
Strongly Agree
2
 Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin 		Berkeley
Agree
6
 Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen 		Berkeley
Strongly Agree
5
 Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav 		Stanford
Strongly Agree
5
 Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair 		Yale
Agree
1
 Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein 		MIT
Strongly Agree
9
 Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee 		Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
 Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone 		University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
 Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall 		Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart 		Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström 		MIT
Strongly Agree
10
 Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby 		Stanford
Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
RCTs are helpful for answering a variety of partial equilibrium questions, though of course not helpful for all questions.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes 		Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
 Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd 		Stanford
Agree
7
 Bio/Vote History
Well-constructed experiments are informative. However, one must avoid excessive generalization and extrapolation.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan 		Chicago Booth
Agree
7
 Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap 		Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
 Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow 		Stanford
Strongly Agree
7
 Bio/Vote History

-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin 		Stanford
Strongly Agree
4
 Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin 		Harvard
Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus 		Yale
Strongly Agree
5
 Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld 		Berkeley
Strongly Agree
7
 Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez 		Berkeley
Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson 		Yale
Strongly Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
Other tools are valuable as well, but RCTs are an important part of a balanced methodological arsenal.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman 		Columbia University
Agree
7
 Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee 		MIT
Strongly Agree
7
 Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro 		Berkeley
Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer 		University of Chicago
Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock 		Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
This is a revolution in economics that has been tremendously important - not applicable everywhere but where it is, it can be definitive
Thaler
Richard Thaler 		Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
5
 Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry 		Northwestern
Strongly Agree
10
 Bio/Vote History
I'm not a disinterested bystander...
-see background information here
-see background information here
-see background information here
-see background information here
-see background information here

Question B Participant Responses

Participant
University
Vote
Confidence
Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu 		MIT
Agree
5
 Bio/Vote History
Depends on what significant means. RCTs provide valuable knowledge but development is mostly about institutions, norms, politics, technology
Alesina
Alberto Alesina 		Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji 		Yale
Strongly Agree
9
 Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach 		Berkeley
Uncertain
3
 Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor 		MIT
Strongly Agree
10
 Bio/Vote History
Significant does NOT mean that RCTs will get us all the way there. But they are indispensable in this effort.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker 		University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
3
 Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee 		MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand 		Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier 		Princeton
Agree
6
 Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty 		Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier 		Yale
Agree
6
 Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler 		Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton 		Princeton
Strongly Disagree
9
 Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie 		Stanford
Agree
1
 Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin 		Berkeley
Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen 		Berkeley
Agree
5
 Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav 		Stanford
Strongly Agree
5
 Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair 		Yale
Agree
1
 Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein 		MIT
Strongly Agree
9
 Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee 		Chicago
Strongly Agree
9
 Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone 		University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall 		Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart 		Harvard
Agree
7
 Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström 		MIT
Strongly Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby 		Stanford
Agree
6
 Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes 		Berkeley
Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd 		Stanford
Agree
7
 Bio/Vote History
Policies for reducing poverty must be based on a long-run perspective. Experiments that also have a long-run focus can be valuable.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan 		Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
 Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap 		Chicago Booth
Agree
1
 Bio/Vote History
External validity is complicated and as part of a confirmation process this can help, in isolation, much less clear.
Klenow
Pete Klenow 		Stanford
Strongly Agree
7
 Bio/Vote History

-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin 		Stanford
Agree
3
 Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin 		Harvard
Agree
7
 Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus 		Yale
Uncertain
3
 Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld 		Berkeley
Agree
7
 Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez 		Berkeley
Agree
9
 Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson 		Yale
Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
The link from research to effective policy is difficult, no matter what research method, but RCTs can usefully contribute to this link.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman 		Columbia University
Agree
7
 Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee 		MIT
Uncertain
6
 Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro 		Berkeley
Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer 		University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
 Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock 		Harvard
Agree
8
 Bio/Vote History
My only caveat is that RCTs can solve some problems but not others, they are a key element of a larger suite of methods.
Thaler
Richard Thaler 		Chicago Booth
Agree
5
 Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry 		Northwestern
Strongly Agree
10
 Bio/Vote History
A tool; obviously not the only tool.
-see background information here
-see background information here
-see background information here
-see background information here

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