The Chinese government
pursues policies that keep the renminbi's exchange rate vis à vis the dollar
lower than it would be if the currency floated without those policies.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
That is my understanding, but this is second-hand information, not my area of expertise.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Not my field.
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Yes, but the situation is not as extreme as was the case a few years ago.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Everyone thinks so. Can everyone be wrong? Yes. But not every time, and not most of the time.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Seems uncontroversial.
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
The undervaluation of the currency is part of their growth strategy. Higher prices for consumers; more demand for products from abroad.
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
multiple trillions of foreign reserves, giant trade surpluses, fighting to contain domestic inflation. Smells a whole like undervaluation.
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
China has many policies; some raise and some lower the value of the yuan. Absent the ones that lower its value, it would rise.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
The same policies are creating big imbalances in China by thwarting price signals. The eventual adjustment for China could be ugly.
-see background information here |
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
They use the exchange rate for monetary policy, but some knowledgeable economist believe that the rate would be higher with float.
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Would expect that China amassing $3 trillion in dollar reserves has an effect on the exchange rate.
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Cecilia Rouse |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
I don't know enough about what China may or may not be doing to state an informed opinion.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
Although these policies also increase inflation, what erodes a portion of the impact on the real exchange rate.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Not my terrain. I know little more than what I read in the unreliable press.
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Not my area.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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