US

Early Education

Using government funds to guarantee preschool education for four-year olds would yield a much lower social return than the ones achieved by the most highly touted targeted preschool initiatives.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
More public investment in pre-school educated is warranted, but good targetted programs cost less and crowd out less parental invest.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Contemporary research has not reproduced the miracles seen in Perry, Abecedarian and Early Learning.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Returns are highest for quality programs for disadvantaged children, many of whom are already being served through Head Start & state progs.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
I suspect this is true, but one shouldn't overstate selection relative to learning about how to do it better over time.
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The most highly touted have higher returns than average. That does not mean that universal per school is a bad idea.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
The evidence on preschool initiatives has been very mixed.
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Of course the average is lower than the max. But that does not mean the nation should not go that route.
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
If we used the gov funds to propagate the most highly touted programs, wouldn't we get a good result? But I don't have any expertise here.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
The Nordic experience speaks strongly against this view.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Bad Q!. Univ preK is wasteful b/c much is pure transfer to upper-inc families. However social returns to highly touted prgms very uncertain!
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Question is fuzzy. Also, the real question is whether the social return is high enough to justify the costs.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Too far from my expertise to say.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Question is a bit confusing. Presumably lower than very high-end estimates of Perry program, but I'd have wide confidence interval.
-see background information here
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Recent reserach suggests that the large gains from expanding preschool will come if funds are targeted toward disadvantaged families.
-see background information here
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
If the question is whether the average is less than the max, then not interesting. And no idea how to interpret "much". Right Q: is NPV>0
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
There is solid evidence that good preschool education has a high return. Implementation is a challenge but ingredients for success are known
-see background information here
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History