Using government funds to guarantee preschool education for four-year olds would yield a much lower social return than the ones achieved by the most highly touted targeted preschool initiatives.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
8%
18%
5%
5%
29%
29%
5%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
8%
6%
32%
44%
10%
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
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![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
More public investment in pre-school educated is warranted, but good targetted programs cost less and crowd out less parental invest.
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Contemporary research has not reproduced the miracles seen in Perry, Abecedarian and Early Learning.
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![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Returns are highest for quality programs for disadvantaged children, many of whom are already being served through Head Start & state progs.
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
I suspect this is true, but one shouldn't overstate selection relative to learning about how to do it better over time.
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![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
The most highly touted have higher returns than average. That does not mean that universal per school is a bad idea.
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
The evidence on preschool initiatives has been very mixed.
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![]() Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Of course the average is lower than the max. But that does not mean the nation should not go that route.
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![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
If we used the gov funds to propagate the most highly touted programs, wouldn't we get a good result? But I don't have any expertise here.
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![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
The Nordic experience speaks strongly against this view.
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Bad Q!. Univ preK is wasteful b/c much is pure transfer to upper-inc families. However social returns to highly touted prgms very uncertain!
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Question is fuzzy. Also, the real question is whether the social return is high enough to justify the costs.
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Too far from my expertise to say.
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![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Question is a bit confusing. Presumably lower than very high-end estimates of Perry program, but I'd have wide confidence interval.
-see background information here |
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Recent reserach suggests that the large gains from expanding preschool will come if funds are targeted toward disadvantaged families.
-see background information here |
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![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
If the question is whether the average is less than the max, then not interesting. And no idea how to interpret "much". Right Q: is NPV>0
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![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
There is solid evidence that good preschool education has a high return. Implementation is a challenge but ingredients for success are known
-see background information here |
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![]() Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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