US

Crypto Assets

Question A:

High volatility in the prices of crypto assets such as Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Ethereum largely reflects movements in investor sentiment rather than news about potential sources of fundamental value (such as possible applications, or use in illicit transactions).

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Given existing regulations, as crypto assets grow in value and become more connected to the rest of the financial system, the fluctuations in their valuations pose a serious risk to financial stability in advanced economies.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
There is an element of "fundamental value" as cryptos capture seigniorage value but this depends on "sentiments" concerning their adoption.
-see background information here
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
There is also speculation about potential regulatory moves
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
I would also have agreed if the question asked about the value of gold bullion.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Despite use cases such as remittances and illegal payments, total dollar volatility seems out of proportion to the value of such services.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Why leave out TrumpCoin, Shiba Inu and Pancake Swap?
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Hard to judge given that we don't know what sentiment is.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
There is less fundamental info (eg few analysts) but like equity it is info sensitive
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
The biggest uncertainty is how world monetary authorities will respond once crypto competes with normal currencies.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
See Jon Cunliffe's fantastic speech
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Crypto asset prices are too volatile to reflect only information updating.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Some significant movements are clearly tied to government regulations in China, El Salvador, etc
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
And a threat to climatic stability as the emissions they cause multiplied, at least in the case of bitcoin.
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Current regulation does little to mitigate runs, cyberattacks, and outages. Asset growth is large.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
The trillions in “value” is already substantial. At some point fluctuations could become a problem.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Risk to t-bill and commercial paper markets. Serious/major risk, not so sure.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
How much leverage are we talking?
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
A properly designed financial system that banishes the regulatory put is not vulnerable to fluctuations in asset values.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Stable coins and other debt like instruments create risk. Need to be regulated depending on function.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Monetary authorities will kill it by regulation and imitation, and portray unregulated crypto as a tool for criminals and terrorists.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Only question is what 'serious' means -- this definitely becoming an issue
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
One would hope sufficient safeguards can be built in.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Risks substantially mitigated, if rules for crypto assets recently proposed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision are adopted.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
If they become a serious risk, one would hope that regulations would be changed.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
At least not yet
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History