Question A:
Economic damage from the virus and lockdowns will ultimately fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
11%
0%
0%
4%
26%
41%
17%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
6%
24%
44%
26%
Question B:
A temporary standstill on sovereign debt payments by low- and middle-income countries to all official and private creditors to give those countries space to cover the immediate costs of the crisis would benefit advanced economies.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
11%
4%
0%
7%
24%
43%
11%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
8%
23%
52%
16%
Question C:
Export restrictions on food and medical supplies, and other protectionist measures, are likely to cost lives and slow economic recovery in all countries.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
11%
0%
0%
0%
7%
39%
43%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
5%
39%
56%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Very difficult to say on this one. The value of life in different countries appears to be large. 1.5 million people died of TB in 2018.
-see background information here |
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Their occupations are more likely to be hard-hit, and within occupations, they work for firms that are more likely to be in trouble.
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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They have to fight the virus, with a poor health system, low commodity prices, low remittances, capital outflows, and little fiscal space.
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Most African countries have not been hard hit by the pandemic, until now. This could change but remains very uncertain.
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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the issue is also inequality in rich countries. There is plenty of money available there but it only flows to one part of the population
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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One factor will be the degree of coordination of national rescue programs. The less coordinated, the worse. At EU level, and globally.
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is a lot of heterogeneity across ctrys, but health care syst weaker, high pop density, & less ability to work from home.
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mismanagement in UK and US may mean high costs there too; but their economies are more resilient and their credit ratings higher than LDCs
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Possibly true, but on the other hand many poor countries are in warm climates and their populations are much younger than ours.
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Low income countries do not have the buffers that high-income countries have, like risk pooling
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Their health systems are least able to cope
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Age structure
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The situations with COVID in emerging markets is unclear but they have lower healthcare capacity and less ability to do working from home.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The world might be better off in terms of lives saved if we spent the money we solving TB (and others) that kill far more than COVID-19.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It may benefit some, but hurt other creditors. But it seems to be socially efficient thing to do, especially since it may entail no default
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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it may well help AEs, by limiting the pandemic and the effects of defaults on the financial system. But this is not the reason to do it...
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Would create all sorts of trouble, arbitrage opportunities, and a worsening of financing conditions without solving the debt overhang.
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It could benefit advanced ctrys too, but whether it would is uncertain in my mind; does not mean advanced economies shouldn't do it to help.
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Widespread sovereign defaults are the likely alternative, which would reduce the pace of recovery from the pandemic globally
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends who owns the debt but it is likely that those who will benefit from this in advanced countries (eg. producers) are more in need
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not clear that it would benefit advanced economies.
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I have read the debt standstill proposal by Bolton et al. The case is very well documented and argued and I am convinced by it.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question C Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I think it depends on the country. For many export restrictions wouldn't have much effect globally but for others they may, e.g. US, China.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unilateral policies may be beneficial, but no country is likely to benefit from a trade war (no country produces enough food AND drugs)
-see background information here -see background information here |
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, in countries as a whole, although maybe not (in the short run) in those countries imposing the restrictions.
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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perverse effects have been shown clearly by Chad Bown in particular.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
All depends on allocation of production capacities and output inventories among countries at the moment when the restrictions are imposed.
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||||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Morally repugnant in the current situation; but also economically unwise in an age of global supply chains
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Trivial give as much help to each other as possible
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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||||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
|
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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||||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
We risk a situation in which vital supplies are stockpiled unncessarily in some parts of the world while other parts see serious shortages.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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