Question A:
Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
14%
5%
5%
21%
40%
14%
2%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
9%
24%
48%
12%
7%
Question B:
The near certainty that the UK will leave the European Union’s customs union and single market in 2020 offers a sizeable export market opportunity for American business.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
14%
5%
5%
23%
40%
14%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
9%
35%
41%
14%
0%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
very hard to predict
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Answer depends on benchmark. The uncertainty is not removed since the new treaty btw EU and UK still has to be negotiated.
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![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
It did! For a few days.
|
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The election news could have had either effect, in principle. The pound strengthened, possibly signaling the impact of reduced uncertainty.
|
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
There remains much uncertainty including how economy will respond.
|
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Disagree with substantial. If it's large, the BoE will take offsetting action. And there's still great trade uncertainty going forward.
|
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
What could possibly go wrong?
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
There is some evidence that resolution of uncertainty with preserved mean is good, but remain might deliver a better mean.
|
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![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
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![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
I doubt that any benefit would be substantial.
|
||||
![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
the ambiguity over the future relationship is still going to be important. if that were resolved positively, a bump is possible
|
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![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
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![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Uncertainty about the UK's ultimate trading relationships will persist beyond December 2020.
|
||||
![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Economies loathe uncertainty. Making a departure nearly certain will boost the economy; "significantly" is more difficult to predict.
|
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![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
Although Brexit seems decided, uncertainty about final trade deal remains.
|
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Lots of uncertainty and, more importantly, downside risk, remains
|
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![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
I have no idea what the market will do but whatever happens the cause will not be “certainty”. No one knows what Brexit will bring.
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![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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