Question A:
If the UK opts to withdraw from the European Union, and assuming Scotland stays in the UK, the level of the UK's real per-capita income a decade later will be lower than if it remains part of the EU.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
10%
10%
2%
2%
36%
36%
5%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
6%
1%
33%
50%
9%
Question B:
If the UK exits the EU, then it substantially increases the chances that some other current region of the EU will also exit within the following decade.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
10%
10%
0%
2%
14%
57%
7%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
2%
11%
76%
12%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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we will never know
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depending on implementation details, an exit would increase barriers and frictional costs for intra-European commerce.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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leaving is awful. the euro zone prospects are awful. which is more awful? awfully hard to tell
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The EU is Britain's most important trade partner. Trade barriers with the EU would rise and this will hurt Britain's investment and growth.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on terms for staying. There are win-win terms.
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Leaving a free trade region will reduce efficiency, as well as reduce economic opportunities for UK citizens in Europe.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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big transition costs to renegotiate various treaties even if Scotland stays in UK. but Scotland wld likely leave UK => even worse for both.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A decade is long enough, and the economies complicated enough, that anything could happen.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But costs of immigration restrictions in UK and less access to single market would probably outweigh gains from deregulation and transfers
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am 100% sure I don't know the answer. EU could crash. What deal does UK strike? There are many unknown unknowns.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Once unraveling begins, it decreases both the benefits of staying and costs of exiting for the next ambivalent country.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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With much uncertainty on magnitudes, the value of remaining in the EU depends positively on the set of EU members, a complementarity effect.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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if they establish rules on how it works to exit and what access exit countries get to the market, then definitely raises exit chances
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The value of staying in will fall. Others will also be emboldened to jump for noneconomic,e.g., political and psychological, reasons.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Countries that had the same policy preferences as UK will have less power. UK might form an alternative free trade framework.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Scotland would be very likely to go and resolving the legal ambiguities will embolden separatists elsewhere such as Catalonia
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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UK situation perhaps a bit different than many others because of own currency, and historical ambivalence about being part of Europe.
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Predicting political events a decade ahead is perilous, but a withdrawal from the EU by the UK can't help.
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Once the mindset that exit must be prevented at all costs is broken, others will more readily follow.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If there are good economic arguments pro or con, they have not reached me.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ah, there is always a key word in these. This time it is "substantially". The sign seems right but no clue about the magnitude.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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