On Global Markets

A few weeks ago, my eldest child made the all too easy mistake of casually asking me “why doesn’t Britain use the Euro?” It would, as she noted, make holidaying in Spain much more straightforward. Twenty minutes later, and after an impromptu tutorial on monetary policy and the business cycle, she presumably regretted asking. Prompted […] 

Around 18 months ago, during the short-lived Prime Ministerial term of Liz Truss, your columnist had lunch with an American asset manager who happened to be in London. His visit was at least well timed for a period of extreme turbulence in the market for British government debt. Wearily he told me that he only […] 

The past year has been good for those who happen to hold US equities. The S&P 500 is up by almost 30% over the last twelve months and by around 7.5% so far this year. Which given that March only just started is a very strong return indeed. Investment commentary though, and the opinion pages […] 

For both the real economy and for financial markets there are few variables as important as the Fed Funds rate. The pricing of stocks and bonds, the direction of the housing market and corporate hiring and investment plans are all ultimately affected, to a greater or lesser degree, by the decisions the Federal Open Market […] 

For more than two years inflation has dominated the macroeconomic policy discussion on both sides of the Atlantic. Few would have expected this as late as 2019. At that point, a decade after the financial and banking crisis of 2007-2009, most discussion of inflation in policy and academic circles – and especially in the Eurozone […] 

Almost two years on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, launched on the 24th February 2022, the fighting continues. The extent and future of Western support for Ukraine, together with questions around the effectiveness of the sanctions regime on Russia, continue to be live political issues in the United States and in parts of Europe. This […] 

In 1930 John Maynard Keynes wrote of his hopes for the future of his profession. To the modern reader, they seem rather modest. “If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people on a level with dentists”, he noted, “that would be splendid”. The humility of the ambition is rather refreshing […]