About
- C.V. Starr Professor of Economics
- Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India (2017- 2019)
- Editor, Review of Financial Studies (2025-Present)
- Resident Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2023)
Voting History
Question A: The large demand of passive investors for shares in SpaceX in the days after the IPO will cause substantial overvaluation of the stock.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Comment: Retail investors are chasing the skies at this moment of overvaluation in the market as a whole, and even the rational ones have FOMO, which is affecting the valuations they are willing to pay.
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Question B: Rebalancing of investors' portfolios to make room for SpaceX will cause measurable price pressure on other large growth or technology stocks in the days after the IPO.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Comment: It is unclear there will be large portfolio effects. It just feels like an "absolute bubble" territory of the market right now! But given the size of SpaceX IPO, maybe some...
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Question A: Prediction markets provide substantially more accurate forecasts of key macro-financial variables than traditional sources such as surveys of professional forecasters.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Comment: Depends on whether the prediction market participants represent a good sampling of investors (firms, households, ....).
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Question B: Retail market participants would be measurably better off if sports contracts on prediction markets were regulated more like gambling than like financial derivatives.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Comment: Again,this could depend on the kind of series that is being forecasted based on the bets. In some cases, retail investors would be better off not being ripped off by insiders privy to information. In others, they could be better off just not taking on leverage or bets.
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Question A: Nasdaq has been consulting on inclusion of the largest companies in its indexes: https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/docs/NDX_Consultation-February_2026.pdf
Changing the rules for index inclusion to allow fast-track entry by extremely large IPOs (including waiving the free float requirement) is consistent with the objectives of passive index-based investing.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Comment: Due diligence and IPO performance might be key to retaining sustained passive investor interest in index trading.
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Question B: Changing the rules for index inclusion to allow fast-track entry by extremely large IPOs (including waiving the free float requirement) will make index fund investors measurably better off.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Question A:Some major private credit funds - including those offered by BlackRock, Cliffwater and Morgan Stanley - have maintained their redemption limits, not fully filling all investor requests.
The enforcement of restrictions on withdrawals from private credit funds predicts that the funds will substantially underperform indices of liquid high-yield corporate bonds over the next 18 months.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Comment: Thos was a frothy asset class with all signs of underwriting standards gone awry with easy money, exacerbated by the redemption rights sold to retail investors unlike the traditional form of locked in long-term funds. Resembles bank runs or investment fund runs.
-see background information here |
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Question B: Assets in the private credit funds that are restricting withdrawals are substantially overvalued relative to their true market value.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Comment: Amend and extend has taken the form now of extend and pretend, which won't work given the retail funds raised with redemption rights ... they will be forced to mark down,either by liquidating assets or raising new equity.
-see background information here |
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Interest-bearing stablecoins, either via direct issuer payments or exchange-provided rewards, would measurably erode the deposit franchise of banks in developed-market economies.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Comment: Depositors that don't require liquidity management services will seek crypto-related and higher deposit rate services of interest-bearing stablecoins. Bank franchise would get eroded by limiting the ability to diversify shocks across depositors, and by greater deposit competition
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Question A: Having the government-sponsored housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities would reduce mortgage rates by more than 25 basis points.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Comment: Market failure for housing affordability is for first-time buyers not getting enough supply from potential sellers who are locked in at low mortgage rates. Better to address these two ends of the market directly. Coarse measures: GSE support, institutional restrictions won't work
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Question B: Having the government-sponsored housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Comment: GSE support works when it is carried out with forward guidance, not as a one off... it is too crude a measure to address the market failure due to low locked-in mortgage rates.
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Question C: Restrictions on large institutional investors buying single-family homes would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Comment: There is a good reason for markets to be arranged around large institutions who could serve as valuable market makers. Without evidence that this is the problem, restricting institutional ownership could impair liquidity of housing transactions, adversely affecting affordability
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