Articles

Ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, this snap poll of the FTxBooth US Macroeconomists Survey panel discusses the first few months of Kevin Warsh’s term as Fed Chairman. The summary results are below and you can read the Financial Times article here, subscription required. View the results of this survey>> For social media: […] 

Voters, as they have made clear over the last few years, hate inflation. And to most of the general public, it appears that ‘inflation’ does not just mean the pace of year on year prices rises but something about the level of prices. People would generally, and understandably, like things to be cheaper – especially […] 

One consequence of the more tumultuous geopolitical environment of the 2020s has been a material rise in global defense spending, and one that looks set to continue. As the IMF noted in its World Economic Outlook this April: After decades of declining global defense spending, rising geopolitical risks and more frequent military conflicts are pushing […] 

There is a well-rehearsed choreography to Yen interventions. It usually starts with ‘sources close to the Ministry of Finance’ letting it be known that they are unhappy with the current level of the Yen, or at least displeased, with the sharpness of recent moves. That is sometimes enough to persuade investors to back away. If […] 

A couple of weeks ago, this column reported on a Finance Experts Panel poll on the Fed’s new communications strategy. Or, as it might be termed, anti-communications strategy. Kevin Warsh, the new Chair, has taken a radically different approach to his most recent three predecessors. As that column explained, ‘he worries that forward guidance means […] 

The Fed has a larger balance sheet than was once the case. Dramatically so, as the chart below makes clear. This is a result of a series of policy decisions made over the last two decades; namely three rounds of quantitative easing (QE) carried out between 2008 and 2014; and then an additional period of […] 

The Fed has a new chair and, it would seem, one with a very different approach to his predecessors. While much of the attention has, understandably, been focused on the traditional question of how hawkish or dovish Kevin Warsh will be on rates, there are deeper issues at play. In (at least) a couple of […] 

To mark the tenth anniversary of the United Kingdom voting to leave the European Union, the Clark Center’s US and European Economic Experts Panels recently looked – once again – at the vexed issue of Brexit. Brexit is one of those issues which has the potential, at least in the UK, to provoke a fierce […] 

Earlier this month, the European Union unveiled its rather unimaginatively named European Technological Sovereignty Package. One imagines that had this been a proposal emanating from the US Congress, it would have had a punchier and more bombastic name; the Safeguarding America Act or some such. Name aside, though, the package was certainly ambitious. As European […] 

This installment of the FTxBooth US Macroeconomists Survey discusses the likelihood of the Fed raising rates to address inflation as well as Kevin Warsh’s start as Fed Chair. The summary results are below and you can read the Financial Times article here, subscription required. View the results of this survey>> For social media: Please use […]