Question A:
Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for answering some long unsettled questions in development economics research.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for making significant progress in poverty reduction.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
RCTs are a very good way in certain circumstances to establish whether certain business strategies and public policies are beneficial.
|
||||
 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It is not the ONLY valuable tool, but in my view it is certainly a highly informative tool.
|
||||
 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Despite the fact that the answers might be dependent on local conditions where the surveys are carried out.
|
||||
 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is an overall YES, because it addresses directly the identification problem, thereby hinting at effective policy instruments.
|
||||
 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Clearly an important tool not only in development. Work by 3 Nobel Laureates has demonstrated this for dev. But also not the only one.
|
||||
 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A great addition to economists’ toolkit - tho we should not expect too much of them
|
||||
 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Experiments have their issues, but what would be our medical knowledge without experiments? More need to follow their lead.
|
||||
 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Well settled technology
|
||||
 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
They can help identify the uses for new technologies and how they can best be implemented.
|
||||
|
Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Though again other tools are also valuable.
|
||||
|
Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Compared to poverty reductions made possible by institutional reforms (e.g. as implemented in china) those made possible by RCEs are limited
|
||||
|
Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
As in any area of research, no one method or approach alone will solve a complex problem.
|
||||
|
Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
For micro interventions; macro/systemwide policy and institutions also needed, though.
|
||||
|
Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The fact that I learn something about causality does not imply implementing isolated changes (of instruments) in the real world is easy.
|
||||
|
Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Pov reduct is complicated process involving mkts, institutions & politics. RCT can help but need many tools, incl. theory, for sign. reduct.
|
||||
|
Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Significant? Yes. Quantitatively important? Not in all cases. Need to keep the Deaton-Pritchett qualifications in mind
|
||||
|
Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Limits to the impact of RCTs arise if decisionmakers do not act on the information generated, macro distortions cannot be tested with RCTs.
|
||||
|
Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
external validity is a real concern with all RCTs, as Duflo and Banerjee also argue ("The plumbing matters")
|
||||
|
Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
