This US survey examines: (a) Giving the President more direct influence over monetary policy would lead to substantially worse monetary policy decisions; (b) Imposing tariffs results in a substantial portion of the tariffs being borne by consumers of the country that enacts the tariffs, through price increases; (c) There is little empirical evidence that price gouging is causing high grocery prices; (d) Widespread use of price controls creates substantial economic distortions
This Finance survey examines (a) In general, absent any proprietary information, a retail equity investor cannot consistently make accurate predictions about whether the price of an individual stock will rise or fall on a given day; (b) In general, absent any proprietary information, a retail equity investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks
This European survey examines (a) A period of high inflation is substantially more electorally damaging to incumbent governments in advanced countries than a period of high unemployment; (b) Voters are more likely to punish incumbents for what they perceive as poor national economic performance than they are to reward incumbents for a good economy
‘Modern monetary theory’ (MMT) – the idea that a country that is able to borrow in its own currency need not worry about government deficits and debt – has been all over the economics and finance media in recent weeks. This approach to macroeconomics, which has been used to underpin calls for new public spending programs, has been debated widely in newspaper columns, blog posts and tweets – often in quite vitriolic ways.
This US survey examines (a) The Trustees of the U.S. Social Security system currently estimate that the OASI trust fund will be exhausted in 2033, after which substantial benefit cuts are mandated without a change in the law. The response to the impending exhaustion of the OASI trust fund is likely to rely more on general government borrowing than on increases in social security taxes or reductions in social security benefits; (b) As in the most recent major change in Social Security finances (adopted in 1983), the most prudent way to address the impending exhaustion of the OASI trust fund would feature a balanced combination of payroll tax increases and reductions in the benefits received for any given retirement age
This US survey examines (a) Given that much of the Department of Education’s budget is allocated to postsecondary education (including Pell grants and student loans), closing the department would have no measurable effect on the average K to 12th grade school student
Link: https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/USDeptOfEducation_2024_Appropriations.pdf
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.
This European survey examines (a) On the basis of current climate policy commitments and potential technology and market responses, my current best estimate for global warming is that average global temperatures by 2100 will rise to no more than 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) Freer trade improves productive efficiency and offers consumers better choices, and in the long run these gains are much larger than any effects on employment.
B) On average, citizens of the U.S. have been better off with the North American Free Trade Agreement than they would have been if the trade rules for the U.S., Canada and Mexico prior to NAFTA had remained in place.
Shifting the burden of municipal property taxes towards land and away from improvements such as buildings – as proposed in the Detroit land value tax plan – will enhance the incentives for owners to develop their land and thereby give a substantial boost to local economic growth over a ten-year horizon.
This US survey examines (a) Tripling existing import taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum products would lead to measurably higher employment in the US steel industry over the next five years; (b) Tripling the tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers; (c) The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
Imposing new US tariffs on steel and aluminum will improve Americans’ welfare.
This US survey examines: (a) Capping annual rent increases by corporate landlords at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would make middle-income Americans substantially better off over the next ten years; (b) Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments for rent over the next ten years; (c) Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce US income inequality over the next ten years
This US survey examines (a) All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would substantially increase federal deficits and the federal debt over the coming decade; (b) All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would measurably increase the rate of US economic growth over the coming decade, (c) In the US, given Congressional budget scoring rules, temporary tax cuts generate sufficient pressure for extension as to be effectively permanent
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: The average US citizen would be better off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.
B: Unless they were compensated by others, many low-skilled American workers would be substantially worse off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
It is best for society if the management of U.S. publicly traded corporations only considers the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members to the extent that these impacts feedback to impact shareholder wealth.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) If the federal minimum wage is raised gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020, the employment rate for low-wage US workers will be substantially lower than it would be under the status quo.
B) Increasing the federal minimum wage gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020 would substantially increase aggregate output in the US economy.
With sharply rising US inflation prompting debate about the potential role of powerful firms in driving up prices and whether antitrust interventions and/or price controls may be an effective policy response, we invited our US panel to express their views. We asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:
