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Finance

ESG Factors

Question A:

Regulation that allows state pension funds to consider environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions only if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

Regulation that prevents state pension funds from considering environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions even if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Financial Regulation
US

Expectations, Policy and Growth

Question A:

When evaluating the consequences of any shifts in economic policy regimes, it is essential to consider potential changes in the behavior of economic agents due to revised expectations.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

The empirical evidence on how monetary policy affects the economy in the short run is most consistent with the assumption that economic agents form rational expectations.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question C:

Economic research has established that the welfare consequences of differences in countries’ growth and level of development are substantially higher than the welfare costs of business cycles.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises
Finance

Banks’ Business Model

This Finance survey examines (a) Since maturity transformation is an inherent feature of commercial banks' business model, some duration mismatch between assets and liabilities is unavoidable; (b) For the purposes of capital regulation, banks should be required to mark their holdings of Treasury and Agency securities to market at all times (even though their loans are not marked to market)

 

  
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Banking
Europe

AI, Innovation and Society

This European survey examines (a) If countries could impose a ban on the use of ChatGPT and similar generative AI chatbot services that is technologically effective, they would experience a measurably negative impact on national innovation; (b) Regardless of whether advances in AI spur productivity growth, they are likely to create deep challenges for society – in areas from labor markets to politics, and including disinformation, privacy, crime, and warfare – that will be difficult to anticipate, plan for, and contain. 
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Democracy, Government, & Public Policy
US

TikTok

This US survey examines (a) If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably negative impact on US innovation; (b) If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably positive impact on the profits of the big US tech companies 
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Regulation, Competition, & Market Power
US

AI and Productivity Growth

This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades 
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Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity
Europe

AI and Productivity Growth

This European survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades 
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Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity
Europe

France’s Retirement Age

This European survey examines (a) Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by raising contributions while working; (b) Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by reducing benefits once retired 
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Demographics, Aging, & Gender
Finance

Discount Rates

This Finance survey examines (a) Despite the empirical failures of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in explaining expected stock returns, a shareholder-value maximizing publicly-traded firm should still use the CAPM to calculate the cost of equity in capital budgeting; (b) The equity risk premium that U.S. publicly traded firms should use in cost of equity calculations in April 2023 is above 6% 
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Business, Management, & Corporate Performance