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Brian Bell, Nicholas Bloom, Jack Blundell, and Luigi Pistaferri The COVID-19 pandemic is turning into a global recession – probably the biggest drop in economic activity since the Great Depression of the 1930s. This column uses over 3 million earnings observations drawn from more than 400,000 UK workers between 1975 and 2016 to identify groups […] 

Robert E. Hall, Charles I. Jones, and Peter J. Klenow This short note develops a framework for thinking about the following question:What is the maximum amount of consumption that a utilitarian welfare functionwould be willing to trade off to avoid the deaths associated with COVID-19? Ourbaseline answer is 26%, or around 1/4 of one year’s […] 

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Even if tests for Covid-19 are being rationed, there is an urgent need for some random testing to establish baseline levels of the virus to inform any decisions about ending lockdowns.

B) Required elements for an economic ‘restart’ after lockdowns include a massive increase in testing capacity (for infections and antibodies) along with a coherent strategy for preventing new outbreaks and reintroducing low-risk/no-risk individuals into public activities. 

Aaron Edlin and Bryce Nesbitt State certification of those who have recovered from COVID-19 so they can work could help stop the spread of the virus and speed economic recovery. The mechanics of such a system need to be worked out now to prepare for the millions of recovered workers we will soon have. Read […] 

Aaron Edlin and Bryce Nesbit Re-opening a nightclub in New York seems crazy at this point, as that’s just the kind of setting in which Covid-19 can spread like wildfire. But it would not be crazy if all of the workers and patrons had previously had Covid-19 and recovered from it. This observation suggests a […] 

The European economy is experiencing a severe economic contraction as a result of the coronavirus lockdowns in place across most countries. We invited our European panel to express their views on Europe’s economic policy response to the Covid-19 crisis: first, on whether the economic benefits from lockdowns are likely to outweigh their costs over the medium term; and second, on the desirability of a pan-Eurozone fiscal policy response to supplement national measures, including the possibility of issuing new pooled debt instruments – known as ‘coronabonds’ – to fund government spending. 

Arnoud Boot, Elena Carletti, Hans-Helmut Kotz, Jan Pieter Krahnen, Loriana Pelizzon, and Marti Subrahmanyam This policy letter adds to the current discussion on how to design a program of government assistance for firms hurt by the Coronavirus crisis. While not pretending to provide a cure-all proposal, the advocated scheme could help to bring funding to […] 

Severe lockdowns – including closing non-essential businesses and strict limitations on people’s movement – are likely to be better for the economy in the medium term than less aggressive measures. While national governments have responded to the crisis with substantial economic policy measures, a joint euro area fiscal response is still highly desirable. Given the […] 

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Severe lockdowns – including closing non-essential businesses and strict limitations on people’s movement – are likely to be better for the economy in the medium term than less aggressive measures.

B) While national governments have responded to the crisis with substantial economic policy measures, a joint euro area fiscal response is still highly desirable.

C) Given the willingness of the European Central Bank to buy sovereign bonds, including Italian bonds, without limits, there is no need for ‘coronabonds’.