US Economic Experts Panel

 

 

Amid fierce public debates about the size of the Biden administration’s coronavirus protection and stimulus package, we invited our US panel to express their views on the likelihood of the economy ‘overheating’ as a result of the current stance of fiscal and monetary policy. We asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statement, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

 

This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) The $300 supplement to weekly unemployment benefits available from now through September 6 constitutes a major disincentive to work for lower-wage workers.

B) The $300 supplement to weekly unemployment benefits available from now through September 6 is likely to lead to re-employment wages for currently unemployed workers that are higher by an economically meaningful amount. 

There is much debate about whether the patents on Covid-19 vaccines should be waived to allow low-income countries to produce doses for themselves. We invited both our European and US panels to express their views on this issue and the broader challenges of vaccinating the world.

 

This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:

The Bank for International Settlements defines a central bank digital currency as follows: ‘In simple terms, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would be a digital banknote. It could be used by individuals to pay businesses, shops or each other (a 'retail CBDC'), or between financial institutions to settle trades in financial markets (a ‘wholesale CBDC').’

A) For developed countries, a central bank digital currency that is available to the public at large would offer social benefits that exceed the associated costs or risks.

B) Central banks that do not introduce their own digital money risk losing the ability to conduct effective monetary policy.

C) The introduction of a central bank digital currency is unlikely to have major effects on the economy. 

This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) In an economy open to capital flows, monetary policy can only be effective with a floating exchange rate.

B) For emerging and developing economies open to the world capital market, a flexible exchange rate confers little advantage over a pegged exchange rate in terms of economic stability.

C) The key feature making the US a more natural optimum currency area than the euro area is higher labor mobility. 

This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would substantially improve availability of the vaccines in developing countries.

B) Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would have a negative impact on vaccine development efforts for future variants of SARS-CoV-2 or for the next pandemic.

C) Without an international agreement that facilitates vaccine trade, countries’ incentives to limit exports of vaccines and/or key production inputs are likely to prolong the adverse effects of the pandemic in advanced countries. 

This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Policies that aim to reduce obesity by increasing incentives for physical activity would improve social welfare more than policies that increase the financial costs of consuming calories.

B) A ban on advertising junk foods (those that are high in sugar, salt, and fat) would be an effective policy to reduce child obesity. 

This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:

Sound policy would involve increasing significantly the currently near-zero price of emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.