US Economic Experts Panel

What are the likely economic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the responses by the international community? We invited our US and European experts to express their views on the potential fallout for the Russian economy, the European economy, the US dollar’s role as an international currency, and global growth and inflation. We asked both panels whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 temporarily increased the value of the child tax credit from $2,000 to $3,000 for children aged 6-16 and to $3,600 for younger children. To date, the Biden administration has been unable to renew the expansion of the child tax credit, amid broad public debate about its effects on child poverty and parental labor supply, as well as its potential longer-term fiscal benefits.

The pandemic has led to a big shift to working from home among people in occupations where it is possible for the jobs or some part of them to be done remotely. There has been much debate about the extent to which such forms of working (or a hybrid model, with some hours done at home and some on business premises) will continue over the longer term. Key questions include the potential impact on employees’ productivity and their job satisfaction, and whether the career trajectories of women and men may be affected differently by a substantial increase in working from home.

With sharply rising US inflation prompting debate about the potential role of powerful firms in driving up prices and whether antitrust interventions and/or price controls may be an effective policy response, we invited our US panel to express their views. We asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

With the emergence of a new strain of the virus that causes Covid-19 re-opening debates about the economic impact of the pandemic, the success of efforts to achieve global distribution of vaccines and the value of travel bans, we invited our panels to express their views on these issues. In early December, we asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence: