US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Child Tax Credit

Question A:

A permanent version of the 2021 expansion of the child tax credit would reduce child poverty substantially.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

The costs of increasing resources for low-income families via the expanded child tax credit would be substantially offset over the longer term by the fiscal benefits of improving life outcomes for children no longer growing up in poverty.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Parental labor supply would be unlikely to fall significantly following reintroduction of the expanded child tax credit.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

February 8, 2022

Working From Home

Question A:

Employees who spend two of their days each week working from home are, on average, likely to be more productive over the longer term.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Employees who spend two of their days each week working from home are, on average, likely to report higher levels of job satisfaction over the longer term.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Having the opportunity to work two to three days a week from home is, on average, like to be more beneficial for women’s career progression than for that of their male colleagues.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

January 28, 2022

Global Supply Chains

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

January 25, 2022

Inflation, Market Power, and Price Controls

With sharply rising US inflation prompting debate about the potential role of powerful firms in driving up prices and whether antitrust interventions and/or price controls may be an effective policy response, we invited our US panel to express their views. We asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

January 11, 2022

Omicron

With the emergence of a new strain of the virus that causes Covid-19 re-opening debates about the economic impact of the pandemic, the success of efforts to achieve global distribution of vaccines and the value of travel bans, we invited our panels to express their views on these issues. In early December, we asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

December 8, 2021

Inflation

With consumer prices rising at the fastest pace for three decades, we invited our US panel to express their views on the risks of prolonged higher inflation as a result of the current stance of fiscal and monetary policy, as well as the likely impact of an easing of supply bottlenecks. We asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

November 23, 2021

Climate Targets

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

November 2, 2021

Natural Experiments in Labor Economics and Beyond

The 2021 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was recently awarded to David Card of the University of California, Berkeley, ‘for his empirical contributions to labour economics’, and to Joshua Angrist of MIT and Guido Imbens of Stanford University ‘for their methodological contributions to the analysis of causal relationships’. As has become an annual tradition at the IGM, we invited our panels to express their views on the work of the new laureates. We asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

October 21, 2021

Climate Reporting Mandate

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

October 5, 2021

Vaccine Mandate

Following the Biden administration’s announcement of its intention to require that anyone at a firm with more than 100 employees or in the federal workforce be vaccinated or tested regularly, we invited our US panel to express their views on the likely economic impact of the vaccine mandate. We asked the experts whether they agree or disagree with the following statement, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

September 21, 2021