US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Computer Chips

Question A:

Given the centrality of semiconductors to the manufacturing of many products, securing reliable supplies should be a key strategic objective of national policy.

Responses

19%

53%

21%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Restrictions on exports of semiconductors and related high-tech equipment to China will substantially improve US technological leadership.

Responses

19%

56%

16%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

International Trade & Exchange Rates

November 1, 2022

Banks and Financial Crises

Question A:

Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit substantially the wider economic damage from financial crises.

Responses

14%

53%

16%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Reforms of financial regulation since 2008 (and macroprudential policies in some countries) will not substantially reduce the probability of financial crises.

Responses

14%

26%

35%

16%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

October 18, 2022

Hurricane Economics

This US survey examines (a) In the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, the level of Florida’s GDP in five years will be substantially lower than it otherwise would; (b) The prospect of further costly extreme weather events means that there is a substantial chance that some private property insurance markets will no longer exist in ten years in states such as Florida; (c) Without large government subsidies, mandated flood insurance requirements would substantially reduce losses from subsequent natural disasters by encouraging economic activity to migrate from the most flood-prone areas

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

October 11, 2022

Student Loan Relief

This US survey examines (a) The administration’s loan relief plan will not have a substantial impact on inflation in either direction; (b) A longer-term impact of the administration’s loan relief plan is likely to be substantially higher tuition fees at some universities; (c) A longer-term impact of the administration’s loan relief plan is likely to be measurably higher student debt burdens in anticipation of future forgiveness

Education & Skills

September 27, 2022

Oil Price Cap

In early September 2022, the finance ministers of the G7 countries confirmed their intention to implement a price cap on purchases of Russian oil and related products. Their objective is to reduce Russia’s ability to fund its invasion of Ukraine while limiting the war’s impact on global energy prices. We invited our European and US experts to express their views on this proposal, asking both panels whether they agree or disagree with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

September 14, 2022

Electric Vehicles

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

July 26, 2022

Roe V. Wade Reversal

Healthcare & Wellbeing

July 12, 2022

Labor Unions

Jobs, Pay, & Unemployment

June 29, 2022

Price Gouging