US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Debt Ceiling

Question A:

A combination of the US federal government having to defer some invoice, benefit, and salary payments, and miss payments on Treasury securities for several weeks would do substantial damage to financial markets.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

A combination of the US federal government having to defer some invoice, benefit, and salary payments, and miss payments on Treasury securities for several weeks would lead to substantially lower employment within six months.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

The requirement to periodically increase the debt ceiling measurably reduces the long-run size of the debt.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

January 31, 2023

Non-Compete Clauses

Question A:

Prohibiting firms from imposing employment contract provisions that prevent workers from moving to a competitor or starting a competing business would lead to a substantial increase in wages in the affected industries.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable increase in innovation.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable reduction in firms’ investment in staff training.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Jobs, Pay, & Unemployment

January 18, 2023

Music Event Ticketing

This US survey examines (a) The market power of event ticket-selling intermediaries leads to consumers who ultimately attend the events paying substantially more and producers receiving substantially less than they would if the intermediary sector were more competitive; (b) The present system of initial ticket selling and reselling through secondary ticket intermediaries often leads to large transfers between different groups of ticket buyers that could be partially captured by artists through higher initial ticket prices; (c) Artists set prices at less than market-clearing levels in an effort to provide access for fans with modest incomes

Regulation, Competition, & Market Power

December 13, 2022

Twitter

This US survey examines (a) Network externalities give Twitter an incumbent advantage that will slow substantially the migration of users who would prefer alternative platforms;
(b) As of now, there needs to be more government regulation around Twitter’s content moderation and personal data protection.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

November 29, 2022

Commitment to Policy Rules

This US survey examines (a) When economic policy-makers are unable to commit credibly in advance to a specific decision rule, they will often follow a poor policy trajectory; (b) Rules-based fiscal policies deliver substantially better outcomes than purely discretionary, on the spot, policy choices.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

November 15, 2022

Computer Chips

This US survey examines (a) Given the centrality of semiconductors to the manufacturing of many products, securing reliable supplies should be a key strategic objective of national policy; (b) Restrictions on exports of semiconductors and related high-tech equipment to China will substantially improve US technological leadership

International Trade & Exchange Rates

November 1, 2022

Banks and Financial Crises

This US survey examines (a) Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit substantially the wider economic damage from financial crises; (b) Reforms of financial regulation since 2008 (and macroprudential policies in some countries) will not substantially reduce the probability of financial crises

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

October 18, 2022

Hurricane Economics

This US survey examines (a) In the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, the level of Florida’s GDP in five years will be substantially lower than it otherwise would; (b) The prospect of further costly extreme weather events means that there is a substantial chance that some private property insurance markets will no longer exist in ten years in states such as Florida; (c) Without large government subsidies, mandated flood insurance requirements would substantially reduce losses from subsequent natural disasters by encouraging economic activity to migrate from the most flood-prone areas

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

October 11, 2022

Student Loan Relief

This US survey examines (a) The administration’s loan relief plan will not have a substantial impact on inflation in either direction; (b) A longer-term impact of the administration’s loan relief plan is likely to be substantially higher tuition fees at some universities; (c) A longer-term impact of the administration’s loan relief plan is likely to be measurably higher student debt burdens in anticipation of future forgiveness

Education & Skills

September 27, 2022

Oil Price Cap

In early September 2022, the finance ministers of the G7 countries confirmed their intention to implement a price cap on purchases of Russian oil and related products. Their objective is to reduce Russia’s ability to fund its invasion of Ukraine while limiting the war’s impact on global energy prices. We invited our European and US experts to express their views on this proposal, asking both panels whether they agree or disagree with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

September 14, 2022

Debt Ceiling

Responses

Responses

Responses

Non-Compete Clauses

Responses

Responses

Responses

Music Event Ticketing

Twitter

Commitment to Policy Rules

Computer Chips

Banks and Financial Crises

Hurricane Economics

Student Loan Relief

Oil Price Cap

Topics

Popular "On Global Markets" Articles

Do Voters Hate Inflation?

Trump, Taxes, and Tariffs

Stock Picking

Recent Polls

Europe’s Defense Sector

Tariffs, Technology, and Growth

Investing in Private Assets

Global Warming

Department of Education

Share on Mastodon

US Economic Experts Panel

Responses

Responses

Responses

Responses

Responses

Responses

Topics

Popular "On Global Markets" Articles

Do Voters Hate Inflation?

Trump, Taxes, and Tariffs

Stock Picking

Recent Polls

Europe’s Defense Sector

Tariffs, Technology, and Growth

Investing in Private Assets

Global Warming

Department of Education

Election Economic Policy Ideas

Department of Education

Modern Monetary Theory

Global Warming

Social Security