US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Dollar Dominance

Question A:

Use of the renminbi in world trade, as a reserve currency, and/or for foreign bond denomination is likely to increase substantially relative to the dollar over the next ten years.

Responses

10%

24%

34%

22%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Ceteris paribus, a shift to a more multi-polar international monetary system would have substantial negative implications for the US economy.

Responses

10%

20%

17%

41%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Financial Markets & Banking

April 11, 2023

Banking Crisis

Question A:

Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors.

Responses

17%

27%

17%

27%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy.

Responses

17%

12%

37%

22%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking.

Responses

17%

15%

22%

32%

10%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Banking

March 30, 2023

Medicare Funding

This US survey examines (a) If it is implemented, the proposed increase in the tax rate on earned and business income above $400,000 in the Biden budget, along with other proposed changes to Medicare, would extend the solvency of the Medicare program for the next 25 years; (b) If it is implemented, the proposed reform of Medicare drug negotiations in the Biden budget is likely to lead to a substantial reduction in drug prices for beneficiaries; (c) If it is implemented, the proposed reform of Medicare drug negotiations in the Biden budget is likely to lead to a substantial reduction in the development of beneficial new drugs

Healthcare & Wellbeing

March 15, 2023

Liability of Internet Publishers

This US survey examines (a) Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially reduce the amount of user-generated content available on those platforms; (b) Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially damage those platforms’ advertising businesses; (c) Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially reduce the amount of misinformation and disinformation present on those platforms

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

February 28, 2023

The Invisible Hand

This US survey examines (a) Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been foundational to the development of modern economic theory; (b) Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been commonly misinterpreted as advocacy for pure laissez-faire capitalism

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

February 15, 2023

Debt Ceiling

With the US federal government having reached the current debt ceiling set by Congress and amid political tensions about raising the limit, we invited our panels of experts in economics and finance to express their views on the potential effects of default, as well as the ceiling’s impact on the long-run size of the debt. Over the weekend before the recent meeting between President Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, we asked the US economics panel whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

January 31, 2023

Non-Compete Clauses

This US survey examines (a) Prohibiting firms from imposing employment contract provisions that prevent workers from moving to a competitor or starting a competing business would lead to a substantial increase in wages in the affected industries; (b) A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable increase in innovation; (c) A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable reduction in firms’ investment in staff training

Jobs, Pay, & Unemployment

January 18, 2023

Music Event Ticketing

This US survey examines (a) The market power of event ticket-selling intermediaries leads to consumers who ultimately attend the events paying substantially more and producers receiving substantially less than they would if the intermediary sector were more competitive; (b) The present system of initial ticket selling and reselling through secondary ticket intermediaries often leads to large transfers between different groups of ticket buyers that could be partially captured by artists through higher initial ticket prices; (c) Artists set prices at less than market-clearing levels in an effort to provide access for fans with modest incomes

Regulation, Competition, & Market Power

December 13, 2022

Twitter

This US survey examines (a) Network externalities give Twitter an incumbent advantage that will slow substantially the migration of users who would prefer alternative platforms;
(b) As of now, there needs to be more government regulation around Twitter’s content moderation and personal data protection.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

November 29, 2022

Commitment to Policy Rules

This US survey examines (a) When economic policy-makers are unable to commit credibly in advance to a specific decision rule, they will often follow a poor policy trajectory; (b) Rules-based fiscal policies deliver substantially better outcomes than purely discretionary, on the spot, policy choices.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

November 15, 2022

Dollar Dominance

Responses

Responses

Banking Crisis

Responses

Responses

Responses

Medicare Funding

Liability of Internet Publishers

The Invisible Hand

Debt Ceiling

Non-Compete Clauses

Music Event Ticketing

Twitter

Commitment to Policy Rules

Topics

Popular "On Global Markets" Articles

The Uncertainty Machine

Tariffs vs Uncertainty

Turning the Other Cheek on Trade?

Recent Polls

Economic Statistics

Capping Credit Card Interest Rates

Independent Financial Regulatory Agencies

Tariffs, Reciprocal and Retaliatory

Tariffs, Reciprocal and Retaliatory

Share on Mastodon

US Economic Experts Panel

Responses

Responses

Responses

Responses

Responses

Topics

Popular "On Global Markets" Articles

The Uncertainty Machine

Tariffs vs Uncertainty

Turning the Other Cheek on Trade?

Recent Polls

Economic Statistics

Capping Credit Card Interest Rates

Independent Financial Regulatory Agencies

Tariffs, Reciprocal and Retaliatory

Tariffs, Reciprocal and Retaliatory

Tariffs, Reciprocal and Retaliatory

Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

Economic Statistics

Tariffs, Technology, and Growth

Free Trade