US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Gold Standard

Question A:

If the US replaced its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard, defining a "dollar" as a specific number of ounces of gold, the price-stability and employment outcomes would be better for the average American.

Responses

53%

40%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

There are many factors besides US inflation risk that influence the current dollar price of gold.

Responses

23%

68%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

January 12, 2012

Congestion Pricing

In general, using more congestion charges in crowded transportation networks — such as higher tolls during peak travel times in cities, and peak fees for airplane takeoff and landing slots — and using the proceeds to lower other taxes would make citizens on average better off.

Responses

29%

63%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

January 11, 2012

Carbon Tax

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:

A tax on the carbon content of fuels would be a less expensive way to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions than would a collection of policies such as “corporate average fuel economy” requirements for automobiles.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

December 20, 2011

Drug Use Policies

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:

A) All else equal, making drugs illegal raises street prices for those drugs because suppliers require extra compensation for the risk of incarceration and other punishments.

B) The Netherlands restrictions on “soft drugs” combined with a moderate tax aimed at deterring their consumption would have lower social costs than continuing to prohibit use of those drugs as in the US. (Click here for a summary of the Netherlands restrictions.)

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

December 12, 2011

Italy’s Debt

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:

A) Credible assumptions for inflation, GDP growth and primary budget deficits in Italy imply that either the Debt-to-GDP ratio in Italy would increase sharply if Italian interest rates on 10-year government debt remained at the November 30 level of around 7 percent or Italy would lose access to the bond market.

B) Absent outside help to deal with runs, such as a pledge of fiscal support from Germany or an unlimited commitment by the ECB to buy bonds, there is no spending-and-tax plan Italy can announce that would be credible enough to hold its interest rates low enough to stabilize its Debt-to-GDP ratio.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

December 5, 2011

Healthcare

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:

There are no consequential distortions created by the tax preference that favors obtaining health insurance through employers.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

November 21, 2011

Buy American

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:

Federal mandates that government purchases should be “buy American” unless there are exceptional circumstances, such as in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, have a significant positive impact on U.S. manufacturing employment.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

November 15, 2011

Tax Reform

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:

A) Eliminating tax deductions for non-investment personal interest expenses (e.g., on mortgages), with reductions in personal tax rates that are both budget neutral and keep the burden of taxes by income group the same, would lead to more efficient financing decisions by individuals.

B) Reducing the deductibility of interest expenses for non-financial businesses to equalize the overall tax cost of debt and equity financing, while using the extra revenue to reduce personal and corporate tax rates in a budget neutral fashion that also keeps the burden of taxes the same, would lead to more efficient financing decisions by firms.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

November 7, 2011

Stock Prices

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:

Unless they have inside information, very few investors, if any, can consistently make accurate predictions about whether the price of an individual stock will rise or fall on a given day.

Plausible expectations of future dividends, discounted using a plausible risk-adjusted interest rate, explain well the level of stock prices for recently listed internet businesses in 1999.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

October 31, 2011

Exchange Rates

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:

The Chinese government pursues policies that keep the renminbi's exchange rate vis à vis the dollar lower than it would be if the currency floated without those policies.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

October 21, 2011