US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Too Big to Fail

Question A:

The average size of the 19 financial firms that just completed the Federal Reserve stress tests (i.e. the CCAR) would be substantially smaller if they did not have implicit government support.

Responses

20%

10%

34%

24%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

The 19 financial firms that just completed the Federal Reserve stress tests (i.e. the CCAR) are big primarily because of economies of scale and scope, rather than because of implicit government support.

Responses

20%

54%

17%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

March 28, 2012

Gasoline Prices

Changes in U.S. gasoline prices over the past 10 years have predominantly been due to market factors rather than U.S. federal economic or energy policies.

Responses

44%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

March 19, 2012

Free Trade

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:

A) Freer trade improves productive efficiency and offers consumers better choices, and in the long run these gains are much larger than any effects on employment.

B) On average, citizens of the U.S. have been better off with the North American Free Trade Agreement than they would have been if the trade rules for the U.S., Canada and Mexico prior to NAFTA had remained in place.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

March 13, 2012

Bank Bailouts

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:

Because the U.S. Treasury bailed out and backstopped banks (by injecting equity into them in late 2008, and later committing to provide public capital to any banks that failed the stress tests and could not raise private capital), the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without these measures.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

March 6, 2012

Health-Care Licensing

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:

Loosening current licensing restrictions on the range of services that nurses, physician assistants, dental hygienists and pharmacists are permitted to perform would help patients on balance, because the additional safety risks would be small compared to the decreased costs in waiting time and fees.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

February 29, 2012

Short Selling

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:

Bans on the short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, lead to prices that are further, on average, from their fundamental values.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

February 20, 2012

Economic Stimulus

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:

A) Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill.

B) Taking into account all of the ARRA's economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

February 15, 2012

Rent Control

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:

Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

February 7, 2012

Executive Pay

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:

A) The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.

B) Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a non-binding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

January 31, 2012

Inequality and Skills

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:

One of the leading reasons for rising U.S. income inequality over the past three decades is that technological change has affected workers with some skill sets differently than others.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

January 24, 2012